1. Changes in the Federal Reserve's voting members in 2025 may lead to policy inclinations
In 2025, the Federal Reserve will have 2 'hawkish' voters, 1 'dovish' voter, and 1 neutral voter. Changes in the voting members of the Fed may lead to policy inclinations. Bloomberg believes that the dispersion of voter positions may lead to more disagreements; Barron's believes that the rotation of voting members may cause the Fed to lean towards hawkishness in its decisions in 2025; Reuters believes that the increase in disagreements among voters may exacerbate risks in policy-making. Additionally, the Fed will hold 8 meetings in 2025, scheduled for January, March, May, June, July, September, October, and December.
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2. Large token unlocks this week
In the next 7 days, single large unlocks (over $5 million) include APT MOVE ZKJ NEON ENA CXT IO BANANA WMTX OP AXS EIGEN, and linear large unlocks (daily unlocks over $1 million) include SOL WLD TIA TAO AVAX DOGE SEI NEAR DOT SUI FIL ENS JTO MOCA. The total unlock value exceeds $759 million.
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3. Vitalik publishes a long article (d/acc: one year later), discussing AI safety and cryptocurrency applications
Focused on three key issues: AI safety regulation, the role of cryptocurrency in d/acc, and public goods financing. AI safety and regulation: first, establish accountability by setting reasonable legal responsibilities for AI users, deployers, and developers; second, establish a global 'soft pause' mechanism at the industrial-grade hardware level, which can reduce global computing power by 90-99% if necessary. Vitalik indicated that the connection between d/acc and cryptocurrency includes: extension of values, early adopter communities, technological applications, and technological complementarity; many cryptographic technologies can be applied in the d/acc field, such as zero-knowledge proofs for privacy protection. Public goods financing: support the sustainable development of important open-source projects and social public technologies through innovative mechanisms such as quadratic funding, retroactive funding, and deep funding.
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4. MicroStrategy acquires 1,070 BTC for $101 million
MicroStrategy has acquired 1,070 BTC for approximately $101 million, with an average price of $94,004, achieving a 48.0% BTC return in the fourth quarter of 2024, and a 74.3% BTC return for the fiscal year 2024. As of January 5, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 447,470 BTC, with an average cost of $62,503, for a total cost of about $27.97 billion.
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5. Dutch regulators grant EU MiCA licenses to 4 companies
MoonPay, BitState, FinTech ZBD, and HiddenRoad have obtained the crypto asset market (MiCA) license issued by the Netherlands, allowing them to operate across all 27 EU countries. MiCA is a set of tailored rules for cryptocurrency companies, requiring companies to obtain a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license from one member state before conducting business throughout the EU. The EU set a deadline of December 30 for its member states to implement MiCA, but not all countries have succeeded.
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6. Solana AI Hackathon accused of becoming an AI token investment venue, with a cumulative market cap exceeding $500 million
Solana AI Hackathon curator and SendAI founder Yash Agarwal criticized the Solana AI Hackathon for inadvertently becoming a platform for AI token discovery, turning into a gambler's paradise. He stated that currently, 2-3 hackathon projects are launching tokens daily, quickly reaching a market cap of $50 million, with a cumulative market cap exceeding $500 million according to incomplete statistics. The current operation method is: submit a project and appear in the Solana AI Hackathon project directory -> use Solana AI Hackathon/SendAI as a credibility endorsement -> launch tokens -> get targeted by whales and KOLs -> push the market cap up to $5-50 million. Degen believes that projects with 100 times growth potential can be found in the Hackathon, making it a perfect investment venue. Yash Agarwal advises builders not to issue tokens just for the sake of issuing tokens, especially without holding a significant proportion of the tokens; launching tokens is easy, but managing them is not fun, and when prices drop, none of these communities, KOLs, or groups will provide help.
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7. Jeju Island in South Korea announces plans to launch a tourism card project based on NFT technology in 2025
Jeju Island in South Korea announces plans to launch a tourism card project based on NFT technology in 2025. The project will integrate with the local blockchain stablecoin Tamna Jeon, providing tourists with various benefits such as travel subsidies, membership rights, and discounts on attractions. Jeju Island Governor Oh Young-hoon stated that the region is gradually advancing digital transformation and plans to apply Web3 technologies such as NFTs across various fields of government services. This NFT tourism card project will pilot in the second half of 2025, initially targeting domestic tourists in South Korea.
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8. Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: U.S. non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve meeting minutes
Summary
This week focuses on U.S. non-farm payrolls and the Fed meeting minutes, to further understand officials' attitudes towards a 25 basis point rate cut. Currently, market analysts believe that even if non-farm payrolls continue to slow down, it may not change the Fed officials' stance, as the Fed previously indicated a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts.
Last week's review
China's official manufacturing PMI for December is 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for December is 50.5, remaining above the threshold for three consecutive months.
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 28 is 211,000, expected to be 222,000, with the previous value revised from 219,000 to 220,000.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for December is 49.3, expected to be 48.2, with the previous value at 48.4.
Key events & indicators this week
January 6
China's Caixin services PMI for December (09:45)
U.S. Congress certifies Trump's victory in the 2024 election
January 8
U.S. ADP employment numbers for December (in thousands) (21:15)
January 9
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting (03:00)
China's December CPI year-on-year (09:30)
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 4 (in thousands) (21:30)
January 10
U.S. adjusted non-farm payroll employment for December (in thousands) (21:30)
U.S. unemployment rate for December (21:30)
