Current Trends
Price Fluctuation: As of January 6, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is around $99,520, having increased by 1.61% in the last 24 hours and 6.37% over the last 7 days. However, Bitcoin previously fell from a peak of $108,000 to below $95,000, indicating some volatility.
Technical Indicators: From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's market structure remains robust. Multiple technical indicators show that the market has not yet reached levels typically associated with cycle peaks. For instance, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought territory across the 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, and 6-hour time frames, but is neutral in the 1-day time frame, suggesting that there may be some overheating in the short term, yet still has upside potential in the long run.
Market Sentiment: Despite a recent price pullback, market sentiment remains relatively optimistic. The 1-month futures premium has recovered to 15%, indicating continued market confidence in future prices.
Future Trends
• Cyclical Growth: Based on Bitcoin's historical price trends, cycles typically last 6 to 12 months during the 'post-halving cooling' phase before entering an exponential growth phase. We are currently nearing this breakthrough point, and although returns may be lower compared to earlier cycles, significant price increases may still occur.
• Price Forecast: In the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin's price rose from a previous all-time high of $20,000 to a peak close to $70,000, an increase of 3.5 times. If we apply similar growth rates, Bitcoin could reach between $140,000 and $210,000 in this cycle.
Macroeconomic Impact: Other macroeconomic indicators, such as the high-yield credit cycle and global M2 money supply, suggest that the market environment for Bitcoin is improving. The contraction in money supply that occurred in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, laying the groundwork for a more favorable market environment. Additionally, Bitcoin's trend typically moves inversely to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and if DXY shows a strong reversal, it could further enhance Bitcoin's upward potential.