Bitcoin (BTC) has performed strongly in recent trades, climbing to $99,280, with an increase of about 1% on Monday. This rise is mainly driven by market optimism, especially surrounding the market expectations for President Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. As Trump's inauguration approaches, investors have a positive outlook on future policies and economic prospects, thereby pushing up Bitcoin's price. However, this upward trend also faces potential pressure from the upcoming FOMC meeting (scheduled for January 29), which could bring short-term volatility.
Bitcoin may consolidate around $97,000
Despite the recent rise in Bitcoin, the market may experience a temporary pullback before the release of the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data on January 15. It is expected that Bitcoin's price will consolidate around $97,000 until the FOMC meeting brings more uncertainty.
Many analysts predict that Bitcoin's closing price in January will be between $97,000 and $98,000, which aligns with the normal fluctuations of market sentiment. However, some analysts believe that if Bitcoin breaks out of the current range and maintains upward momentum, it may see a breakout by the end of the first quarter of 2025, with prices hitting the $125,000 mark.
MARA Holdings' BTC lending plan raises concerns
Recently, the actions of the Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings have attracted widespread attention. The company has lent out 7,377 bitcoins (approximately $722 million) to a third party as part of its short-term profit strategy. This move increased MARA's Bitcoin reserves to 44,893 BTC and raised its mining hash rate to 53.2 EH/s, a 15% increase. While this strategy significantly enhanced the company's liquidity and strengthened its market operations, it has also raised concerns about risk in the market. Some have pointed out that MARA's lending method resembles past reckless behaviors that led to bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency industry, and therefore, this action may dampen the current bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.
Metaplanet's Bitcoin accumulation
In stark contrast to MARA's approach, Tokyo-based venture capital firm Metaplanet is aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, with plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025, marking a 467% increase. Currently, Metaplanet holds 1,762 BTC (approximately $173.4 million). This move reflects institutional confidence in Bitcoin's future prospects, particularly as the U.S. government continues to promote friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies. Analysts believe that Metaplanet's accumulation may stimulate market demand, thereby supporting Bitcoin's price movement. If this trend of institutional adoption continues, Bitcoin could break through the psychological barrier of $200,000 by 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently priced at $99,280 on the 4-hour chart, having broken through the previous downward trend line, indicating potential bullish momentum. The $98,100 support level is playing a crucial role and may become key for price stability in the short term. If the price breaks above the $100,000 level, the next targets could be $102,000 and $105,000, aligning well with psychological barriers and Fibonacci retracement targets.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $96,900, serving as dynamic support that strengthens bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently approaching the overbought zone, which may indicate a possible pullback in the short term. If Bitcoin falls near the $98,100 support level, it could attract more buyers into the market, sustaining the upward momentum. However, if the price breaks below $95,500, it may undermine the current bullish expectations.
Bitcoin's breakout will depend on the key level of $100,000
Bitcoin's next move will depend on whether it can hold firm at the key level of $100,000. If Bitcoin can close above this price, it could accelerate the upward momentum, further pushing the price towards $102,000 and $105,000. However, investors should also be mindful of downside risks, particularly the breaking of the $95,500 support level, which would be an important signal to determine whether the short-term bullish sentiment is maintained.
Bright prospects for the Bitcoin bull market, but operations should be cautious
Overall, Bitcoin still possesses strong upward momentum in the current market environment, especially driven by institutional demand. However, with the FOMC meeting approaching and the risks raised by MARA's lending plan, short-term market volatility may intensify.
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