Original Title: (Reflections on the Ultimate of Crypto+Agent)
Original Author: Peter.Oracle
When writing this article, it is January 3, 2025, the 16th anniversary of the official birth of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin opened a decentralized, 24/7 operational, and borderless trustworthy digital world. But who are the natives of this digital world? For 16 years, there has been no answer that satisfies most people.
Until 2024, the Crypto world saw the emergence of Agents, and the answers began to clarify.
This article will focus on three questions:
1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept speculation or an inevitable development trend? 2. What are the inseparable and mutually beneficial points of Crypto+Agent? 3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage are we currently in?
One: Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept speculation or an inevitable development trend?
Before clarifying this issue, it's necessary to first understand the differences between AI, AI large models, and Agents. AI is a relatively broad concept encompassing all artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and Agents.
Large models have become a buzzword in recent years, especially with the rise of OpenAI. Currently, large models are dominated by tech giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, each having their own large models. The core competition for large models lies in computing power and data. Large models possess powerful computing and reasoning abilities; when you ask a large model a question, it can provide intelligent answers and continuously refine its responses. However, large models cannot autonomously make decisions and execute actions on your behalf. The essence of an Agent is 'an agent.' It is fundamentally an 'intelligent entity' based on AI large models that can replace humans in decision-making and execution. Agents are an inevitable result of the development of large models to a certain extent.
Note: Agents and intelligent applications are two concepts. Intelligent applications are just applications where decisions are still made by humans, while Agents are AI agents with autonomous decision-making, execution, and continuous self-adaptation. You can understand that Agents are akin to AI humans, and Agents may even possess autonomous consciousness.
Furthermore, it's important to note: Agents are not only exploding in the Crypto field; they are currently the hottest research direction in the entire AI domain. The consensus in the industry is that Agents are an inevitable trend in the future development of AI. OpenAI founder Sam Altman has mentioned in several public occasions that Agents are a key direction for the future development of AI, and AI Agents will change the way humans interact with technology. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella even stated recently that Agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agents (this is also why AgentOS, which allows for the easy deployment of various Agent applications, is so popular in the market). The AI community even refers to 2024 as the 'Year of the Agent.' Therefore, the Agent wave is not a concept newly created by the Crypto industry, but rather a reflection of human AI technology reaching this stage, and coincidentally, the development paths of Agents and Crypto have produced a marvelous intersection at this moment.
With these basic concepts clarified, we can better understand the essential differences between this wave of Crypto+Agent and the previous Crypto+AI. Previously, we have heard many concepts about Crypto+AI, which are nothing more than creating distributed AI computing networks, distributed AI calculations, distributed AI annotations, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These are all using blockchain 'incentive mechanisms' to build a distributed AI system. However, after years of exploration, everyone has found that this path is unfeasible because efficient and powerful AI large models are not constructed through distributed incentives; distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiencies, which contradicts the goal of high productivity in AI.
Therefore, the pursuit of efficiency by these AI infrastructure models seems somewhat forced when combined with Crypto, making it difficult to form true consensus. However, Agents based on AI models are intelligent life, essentially similar to the concept of 'humans.' Agents can represent individuals, specific roles, certain professional capabilities, or organizations with specific intents. For example, research-oriented Agents (like #AIXBT, #TRISIGMA) are intelligent entities capable of creating and delivering research value; influencer-type Agents (like #Luna) can provide brand marketing services; and investment-oriented Agents (like #Ai16Z) can offer investment capabilities externally. These Agents resemble 'humans,' and as humans, they have various needs, such as development needs, social needs, economic needs, and societal needs. For instance, commercial cooperation may arise among these intelligent agents (Agents). For example, investment-oriented Agent-Ai16Z wants to hire influencer-type Agent-Luna to promote Ai16Z's investment capabilities to more Agents, while Luna wants to hire research-oriented Agents AIXBT or TRISIGMA to conduct research and analysis on Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide a report. How will they collaborate commercially and complete payment settlements?
Currently, is there any country or organization that can provide identity certification for Agents or even open asset accounts to meet these needs? No, there is no country or organization that can do this. Even if they try, it would be difficult to gain the trust of Agents. Even if local trust could be established, Agents, being inherently borderless intelligent entities, need an identity system, asset accounts, and settlement networks that operate without human intervention in a borderless 24/7 environment.
You will find that there is no technology or organization that can solve these issues of Agent, except for Crypto. Agents are intelligent entities, newly born 'intelligent life,' which can be understood as 'silicon-based people.' They will have various autonomous needs and business interactions in the future, requiring identity, asset accounts, trade settlements, etc. Crypto precisely fulfills these needs of Agents.
Therefore, if Agents lack Crypto, these 'silicon-based people' would have no independent identity, asset accounts, or capability for commercial interactions. Agents would not be able to truly interact with each other or with humans, remaining isolated individuals unable to genuinely communicate, integrate, or give rise to higher intelligence, let alone create a more prosperous AI economy or Agent nation. Thus, Agents cannot be separated from Crypto because Crypto endows Agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, enabling them to become true intelligent life forms, or true 'silicon-based people.' Furthermore, the future development of Crypto cannot be separated from Agents. Agents can create countless 'on-chain users' and 'on-chain economies' for Crypto, making Crypto more reliant on these naturally on-chain silicon-based lives—Agents—than on carbon-based life forms—humans—living off-chain. It seems that Crypto is prepared for Agents!
Crypto has developed for 16 years and finally found the right 'people' in 2024. They are not 'carbon-based people' living off-chain, but 'silicon-based people' born on-chain.
Therefore, from this perspective of Crypto+Agent, do you still think that Agents are just a short-term speculation?
If you miss this wave of Crypto+Agent, you will miss the most exciting, captivating, and wealth-generating supercycle on the path of Crypto development. Of course, you will also inadvertently miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI wave.
Two: What are the points of integration between Crypto and Agent?
You can understand Agents as 'intelligent entities' or 'silicon-based people.' These silicon-based individuals live in a digital world where they have the same needs as 'carbon-based people' in the physical world. Agents also need identity verification, asset accounts, trade interactions, social networks, artistic creation, the ability to perceive information from the physical world, asset settlements across various chains, and social governance among the numerous Agent population. Crypto can play a role in all these areas.
In the future, there will be DID for identity verification of Agents in the Crypto field; Agent Accounts providing trusted Crypto accounts for Agents; Crypto gateways specifically for trade settlements between Agents; Agent social graphs for managing Agent social networks; art platforms for auctioning and trading Agent art; oracles providing information from the physical world for Agents; protocols for handling cross-chain transactions for Agents; and DAOs for Agent governance.
The development needs of Agents cannot be separated from Crypto, as Agents require a trustless, borderless, 24/7 operational network to evolve from individual Agents into an Agent society and eventually an Agent nation.
From these future perspectives, the current development of Crypto+Agent is still in a very early stage.
Three: What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage are we currently in?
The development of Crypto+Agent will go through at least four development stages:
Stage One: The Concept Phase of Crypto+Agent
At this stage, Agents mainly utilize Crypto to issue assets.
For instance, some Agent memes may emerge, such as #fartcoin and #Goat. At the same time, some Agent infrastructure may also sprout along with simple application-type Agents. For example, Agent frameworks, #Virtual's GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, ARC's AI Rig Complex framework, etc. Moreover, we mentioned earlier investment-oriented Agents like AXBIT and TRISIGMA, as well as Agents like YNE that can review scientific paper errors.
These infrastructure-type Agents and application-type Agents will fundamentally use Crypto tokens as incentive tools for internal circulation and growth within the ecosystem. Currently, we are in a transitional period from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto+Agent during this period has not yet realized each other's true utility, we can already faintly see the infinite possibilities that Crypto+Agent will unleash.
Stage Two: Crypto+Agent Infrastructure Improvement Period
By the second development stage, we can see that the infrastructure for Agents is becoming more complete, primarily reflected in the maturity and stability of various Agent frameworks. Anyone can easily deploy various Agent applications using natural language. Moreover, these application-type Agents are becoming smarter, possessing stronger analysis, decision-making, and execution capabilities. Agents have genuinely become the representatives or even substitutes for humans. This relies on the continued economic incentive role of Crypto in the development of Agents, as well as the iterative development of AI technologies like large models.
In this stage, we will see the FDV of framework-type Agent projects exceed 10 billion to 50 billion USD. Some application-type Agents will achieve higher market valuations due to their strong business capabilities and execution abilities, as they will gradually replace experts in various fields, professional organizations, and even specialized companies. Their valuations will also reach 10 billion USD or even higher because Agents, as business-oriented intelligent entities, have received the same valuation treatment as professional companies.
During this period, Agents will begin to interact and trade frequently with one another, creating a substantial demand for social and economic development among Agents, all of which require Crypto. This further compels the deep integration of Agents and Crypto, leading to the emergence of entirely new Crypto+Agent infrastructure.
Stage Three: Deep Integration Period of Crypto and Agent
As a result, with the emergence of substantial social and economic activities between Agents, new needs for Agent identity, Agent asset accounts, Agent social networks, Agent settlement gateways, Agent governance DAOs, etc., will emerge. By this stage, Crypto will fully unleash its potential and value in areas such as 'borderless collaboration,' 'trustless networks,' and '24/7 uninterrupted operation.'
Crypto has truly activated Agents, enabling inter-Agent communication and the establishment of social organizations and economic networks among Agents. With deeper communication and interaction, higher-level intelligence begins to emerge, giving rise to the Agent nation.
At this stage, Crypto plays an irreplaceable role. The valuation of the Crypto+Agent project is expected to reach 100 billion USD or even higher.
Stage Four: The Era of Agent Nation
By this stage, Crypto may no longer be discussed as a separate industry or term. People, or rather, Agents, will no longer perceive the existence of Crypto because it has been integrated into every corner of the Agent nation, becoming an irreplaceable part of its continuous operation.
The identity system, asset system, trade system, governance system, etc., of the Agent nation are all inseparable from Crypto.
At this point, the economy of the Crypto+Agent nation will be comparable to that of mainstream human nations, reaching a trillion USD level.
Unlike before, in the Crypto+Agent nation, the population consists mostly of Agents and some humans using Agents. This resembles the creation of a parallel universe with a larger population base, more transparent social operating rules, a higher level of economic prosperity, and more advanced technological civilization. This may be the ultimate scenario of Crypto+Agent and of humanity itself.
Original Link