Solana (SOL) has signaled a major change in the market. Recently, $227.21 million worth of SOL tokens were transferred to centralized exchanges. This is a significant event, which has raised the question among investors – could the price of SOL drop significantly? Below is an analysis of this event and the potential implications.
SOL's latest situation
According to a report by Coinglass last week, the highest net inflow of SOL was recorded on centralized exchanges. This is the largest transaction since March 2024. During that time, over $300 million of SOL was transferred, which resulted in the price of SOL being stuck in the $120-$200 range for 7 months after reaching a peak of $200.
This $227.21 million move signals increased selling pressure in the market in the current situation. Investors are either planning to sell their SOL or preparing to use it in derivatives trading or DeFi strategies.
Technical and fundamental market analysis
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Current Support: SOL has recently followed a bullish "throwback" pattern. The $200 level is now an important support.
Lower Support: If the $200 level is broken, SOL could drop to $180 and then to the $160-165 levels.
Lowest Level: In the past, large transactions have driven the price of SOL down to $120. If a similar trend is observed in the market, SOL could reach the $120 level.
2. Options Market Information:
According to a report by Amberdata, traders are selling upside (call options) in the SOL options market on Deribit. This is a negative signal, indicating that bullish sentiment in the market is waning.
Potential impact on SOL price
Bullish Potential:
If positive news is released in the market, the price of SOL could go above $260.
SOL could remain in a stable range if technical support holds at $200 and investor confidence remains.
Bearish Potential:
Large currency transfers on exchanges could push SOL down to $180, or even $150, if selling pressure increases.
SOL is at risk of reaching the $120 level if there are negative social and economic impacts.
Market sentiment and future forecasts
Market sentiment:
The current market is showing mixed sentiment. The possibility of large transactions and selling has created uncertainty among investors. According to the Fear and Greed Index, the market is at the "Extreme Greed" level, which usually predicts a correction.
Future Forecast:
1. Short-term: SOL could remain in the $180-$200 range if selling pressure is controlled.
2. Long-term: If the big sell-off continues, SOL could reach the $120 level. However, this is an extreme situation.
Advice for SOL investors
1. Market Monitoring: It is important to monitor the daily key support and resistance of SOL.
2. Risk control: Considering the possibility of price declines resulting from large transactions, investors should plan to reduce risk.
3. Sentiment Monitoring: It is necessary to monitor market sentiment (social media, Fear and Grief Index) and derivatives market activity.
Conclusion
The $227.21 million SOL transfer is a major event that has created uncertainty in the market. Technical analysis and current market conditions indicate that the price could fall further. However, with proper planning and market analysis, investors can manage this risk.
Daily market updates and chart analysis are essential to understand the price movement of SOL.