1. Bitcoin market and mining data.

From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, Bitcoin's price exhibited certain volatility. The main changes during this period are as follows:

On December 30, 2024, Bitcoin surged above $94,900 but could not maintain the upward momentum, retreating to around $92,700 at the end of trading, indicating a bearish market sentiment with short-sellers prevailing. From December 31, 2024, to January 1, 2025, Bitcoin rebounded to above $96,000 after touching support near $92,000 at year-end, showing a slight increase despite visible selling pressure, indicating a return of bullish strength. On the first day of the new year, Bitcoin continued to show an upward trend, maintaining a price around $94,000. On January 3, the daily increase significantly expanded, breaking through the key resistance of $95,000 and oscillating up to above $97,000, indicating active market funds, further strengthening the trend. On January 4, high-level oscillation occurred, and profit-taking emotions emerged in the market, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase, but overall remained above $96,000, showing strong support. On January 5, Bitcoin prices continued to oscillate at high levels, and market sentiment was cautious, with investors showing strong wait-and-see attitudes, maintaining prices between $97,000 and $98,000.

Bitcoin price trends (2024/12/30-2025/01/05)

Market dynamics:

With year-end capital reallocation and the initiation of new year investment strategies, Bitcoin, as digital gold, has attracted inflows.

Institutional investors may have increased their positions, driving prices up rapidly.

Factors analysis:

1. Macroeconomic policies:

Federal Reserve interest rate policy: In 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates multiple times, most recently adjusting the interest rate to a range of 4.25% - 4.5%. Although inflation levels have fallen from their peak, they remain above the target level of 2%. According to the latest forecasts, the Federal Reserve may cut rates two more times in 2025, totaling 50 basis points. High interest rates may dampen market interest in high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

2. Political factors:

Trump administration's cryptocurrency policy: President-elect Donald Trump supports cryptocurrencies and plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve while nominating officials who support cryptocurrencies. These policies may positively impact Bitcoin prices.

3. Market sentiment:

Investor sentiment: The fear and greed index is at 61, indicating that market sentiment leans towards greed, and investors are optimistic about Bitcoin.

4. Technical factors:

Technical indicators: Bitcoin's price has broken above the upper limit of the bullish channel, indicating an upward trend. The relative strength index (RSI) also shows a buy signal.

Hash rate changes:

The Bitcoin network's hash rate experienced significant fluctuations from December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025. Starting on December 30, the hash rate fell from 957.78 EH/s to 708.43 EH/s. However, from December 31 to January 1, the network hash rate quickly rebounded to 955.33 EH/s, before sliding back down to around 655.44 EH/s, showing an oscillating upward trend. Starting January 2, the hash rate continued to climb to 990.64 EH/s, setting a new historical high of 1,000 EH/s in the early hours of January 3, before dropping to 759.66 EH/s. On January 4, the hash rate stabilized around 750 EH/s. On January 5, it slightly increased and stabilized around 825 EH/s. As of the time of writing, the hash rate is 838.92 EH/s.

This historic growth is noteworthy — the new high of 1,000 EH/s reached on January 3 is nearly double the network hash rate from 12 months ago. This significant change reflects not only the advancement of global mining technology but also the intensifying competition within the industry.

Hash rate data of the Bitcoin network.

Hash rate distribution and concentration of the Bitcoin network:

It is worth noting that the U.S. dominates the Bitcoin network hash rate, contributing over 40% of global computing power resources. According to TheMinerMag, the two major mining pools in the U.S., Foundry USA and MARA Pool, account for over 38.5% of all mined blocks. Foundry USA’s hash rate increased from about 157 EH/s at the beginning of 2024 to approximately 280 EH/s in December, becoming the world's largest single mining pool by hash rate, controlling about 36.5% of the total hash rate of the Bitcoin network.

This regional concentration of computing power brings new considerations for mining efficiency and regulation, while also intensifying the focus on the expansion potential of other regional markets.

Mining revenue:

TheBlock data shows that Bitcoin miners' revenue reached $1.44 billion in December, marking the highest since May of this year, surpassing the November figure of $1.21 billion. Additionally, $38.73 million of miners' revenue in November came from on-chain fees, while December's figure was $37.69 million.

Data on Bitcoin miners' income.

Energy costs and mining efficiency:

Data from CloverPool shows that Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted at block height 876,960 (December 30, 2024, 5:55:37), increasing by 1.16% to 109.78 T, setting a new historical high. As of the time of writing, the global average computing power is 804.04 EH/s. The next mining difficulty is expected to increase by 1.29% to 111.20 T, with less than 8 days until the next adjustment.

From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, both the mining difficulty and computing power of the Bitcoin network reached historical highs. Although mining machine efficiency has improved, the rapid growth of global computing power and changes in energy costs pose new challenges for mining efficiency and profitability. Miners need to continuously monitor market dynamics and optimize operational strategies to maintain a competitive edge.

Bitcoin mining difficulty data.

2. Policy and regulatory news.

The People's Bank of China released a financial stability report, mentioning cryptocurrency regulation in Hong Kong.

On December 30, it was reported that the People's Bank of China released (China Financial Stability Report 2024), which includes mentions of global cryptocurrency regulatory dynamics and highlights compliance progress regarding cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong. Given the potential spillover risks that crypto assets could pose to financial system stability, regulatory authorities worldwide are continuously enhancing their regulatory efforts on crypto assets. In Hong Kong, there is active exploration of crypto asset licensing management, categorizing virtual assets into two classes for regulation: securitized financial assets and non-securitized financial assets. Operators of virtual asset trading platforms must apply for registration licenses from relevant regulatory authorities to operate. Additionally, Hong Kong requires major financial institutions like HSBC and Standard Chartered to include cryptocurrency exchanges within the scope of their daily customer oversight.

Japan's Financial Services Agency is considering changing the classification of cryptocurrencies, viewing them as publicly investable financial assets.

On December 30, it was reported that following the announcement by Japan's Financial Services Agency to begin viewing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as 'financial assets,' changes in cryptocurrency classification may occur. Official documents show that the Financial Services Agency has expressed its position in its tax reform request for the fiscal year 2025, hoping to start seeing crypto assets as 'financial assets that the general public can invest in.'

Currently, Japanese laws classify cryptocurrencies as 'payment instruments' under the Payment Services Act. Shifting towards a definition focused more on 'investment' would represent a form of legitimization for cryptocurrencies, but such a change seems dependent on the stability of the cryptocurrency industry. While the document does not call for cryptocurrency tax reforms, CoinPost reported that this indicates Japan's controversial cryptocurrency tax rules 'may' be 'reviewed.'

South Korea's Financial Services Commission: The decision on whether to allow businesses to open cryptocurrency accounts is postponed.

On December 30, it was reported that South Korea's Financial Services Commission announced that the decision on whether to allow businesses to open cryptocurrency accounts will be postponed until 2025. Following the first meeting of the Virtual Asset Commission, the second meeting scheduled for January is expected to revisit the issue of allowing the opening of KRW virtual asset accounts for businesses.

Previously, the Financial Services Commission was considering allowing non-profit entities such as central government departments, local governments, public institutions, and universities to issue real-name accounts in the first phase, but this issue has not yet been finalized. In particular, the recent impeachment situation may cause the government to postpone further discussions on the Virtual Asset Commission's findings.

3. Mining news.

Ten regions in Russia have fully banned cryptocurrency mining starting today.

On January 1, it was reported that ten regions in Russia fully banned cryptocurrency mining effective January 1, with three other regions implementing partial bans. The government decree passed on December 23 stipulates a complete ban on mining from January 2025 to March 2031, with partial restrictions in the other three regions during each heating season before 2031 (from November 15 to March 15 each year, excluding the first year starting January 1, 2025).

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated at the end of December that the number of regions banning cryptocurrency mining might increase if requests are received from governors. Authorities in the Republic of Khakassia have already requested the energy department to restrict mining activities in the region.

HC Wainwright: The total market value of Bitcoin mining companies may exceed $100 billion by 2025.

On January 3, it was reported that U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright indicated that Bitcoin's price is expected to reach $225,000 by the end of 2025, which means Bitcoin's market value will reach $4.5 trillion, about 25% of the market value of gold. HC Wainwright also expects the total market value of Bitcoin mining companies to exceed $100 billion.

Since last November, the total BTC transferred to exchanges and miner outflows have significantly decreased.

On January 5, it was reported that the inflow of BTC to exchanges (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and outflow from miners (BTC sent to exchanges by miners) has significantly decreased since November 2024, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, after experiencing a peak in exchange inflow activities for about two months, the BTC inflow to exchanges peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024. In December 2024, the inflow to exchanges declined, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day. The decrease in exchange inflow coincided with a reduction in miner outflows, indicating decreased selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often liquidate Bitcoin holdings to cover operating expenses.

Miner outflow situation from July 2022 to January 2025.

4. Bitcoin-related news.

The total value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF's on-chain holdings has surpassed $10 billion.

On December 30, it was reported that according to Dune data, the total on-chain holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have surpassed 1.12 million BTC, currently approximately 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, with on-chain holdings valued at about $106.8 billion.

The number of Bitcoin ATMs in Australia has seen continuous growth for 29 months.

On December 30, it was reported that Coin ATM Radar data shows that the number of Bitcoin ATMs in Australia has grown for 29 consecutive months. Australia currently has 1,359 ATMs, accounting for 3.5% of the total number of Bitcoin ATMs worldwide. Additionally, as of December 29, the U.S. has a total of 31,516 Bitcoin ATMs, meaning the U.S. holds 81.3% of all Bitcoin ATMs globally. Canada ranks second with 3,027 Bitcoin ATMs, accounting for about 7.8% of the entire cryptocurrency ATM market.

Cryptocurrency ATMs being dismantled or installed in Australia.

The clean energy usage rate for Bitcoin mining has exceeded 50%, and the market awaits Musk to fulfill Tesla's commitment to resume accepting Bitcoin payments.

On December 30, it was reported that, according to Watcher.Guru, the clean energy usage rate of the Bitcoin network has now exceeded 50%.

Musk stated in June 2021 that Tesla will resume accepting Bitcoin payments once the clean energy usage rate in Bitcoin mining exceeds 50%.

Global Bitcoin holding dynamics: BlackRock holds over 550,000 BTC, El Salvador increases its holdings by 53 BTC.

El Salvador: Increased its holdings by 53 BTC in the past 30 days, currently holding over 6,002.77 BTC, with a market value of approximately $55.6 million.

Australia Monochrome: The spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 266 BTC as of December 30, with assets under management (AUM) approximately $39.957 million.

Yuxing Technology (Hong Kong stock): Recently sold approximately 6.3 million USDT and purchased 78.2 BTC.

BlackRock: As of December 31, 2024, Bitcoin holdings amount to 551,917.901 BTC, with a total market value of approximately $51.731 billion.

CNBC: Many institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2025, with the highest expectation being $250,000.

On December 31, sources reported that several industry observers interviewed by CNBC predict the price of Bitcoin in 2025, with the highest expectation being Bitcoin rising to $250,000. CoinShares' research director James Butterfill indicated that Bitcoin's price could range between $80,000 and $150,000 in 2025. Matrixport suggested that Bitcoin might reach $160,000 by 2025. Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, expects Bitcoin to surpass $150,000 in the first half of this year and reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter.

Standard Chartered's research director expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, believes that Bitcoin's price could reach $200,000 next year. Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, forecasts Bitcoin to reach $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025. Sid Powell, CEO and co-founder of Maple Finance, predicts Bitcoin's price will reach $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer at Nexo, believes Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within a year.

Industry insiders and institutions generally believe that the price of Bitcoin will reach $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025.

On January 1, it was reported that according to aggregated prediction data from Trader T, industry insiders and institutions generally believe that Bitcoin's price will reach $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed remarkably in the first quarter following a halving event.

On January 2, it was reported that according to Coinglass data, historically, Bitcoin has shown considerable performance in the first quarter following a halving, with specific data as follows: Q1 2013: 539.96%; Q1 2017: 11.89%; Q1 2021: 103.17%.

Dennis Porter: A certain state in the U.S. will start purchasing Bitcoin within four months.

On January 2, it was reported that Dennis Porter, co-founder and CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund (SAF), stated on platform X that a certain state in the U.S. is almost 100% certain to begin purchasing Bitcoin within the next four months. He also mentioned that his team is actively promoting the passage of related legislation, indicating that this is not merely a prediction but a real progress being made.

Screenshot of Dennis Porter's post on platform X.

Investment bank H.C. Wainwright raised its Bitcoin price target this year from $140,000 to $225,000.

On January 3, it was reported that investment bank H.C. Wainwright raised its Bitcoin price target for this year from $140,000 to $225,000, stating that the price increase may be driven by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.

MicroStrategy plans to raise $2 billion in the first quarter through the issuance of preferred shares to buy more BTC.

On January 4, it was reported that according to an official announcement, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise up to $2 billion through the issuance of preferred shares, as part of its '21/21 plan,' which aims to raise $42 billion over three years (with $21 billion each for equity and fixed income).

The purpose of this issuance is to allow MicroStrategy to continue strengthening its balance sheet and acquire more Bitcoin, with the issuance expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025.

The announcement states that the decision to continue and complete the issuance is at MicroStrategy's discretion and is subject to market and other conditions, and MicroStrategy may choose not to continue or complete the issuance.

This week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $255.3 million, increasing its holdings by 2,421.94 BTC.

On January 5, it was reported that Lin Chen, the Asia-Pacific business head of Deribit, stated on platform X that 'this week, the overall performance of BTC spot ETF showed a slight net inflow, despite a significant net outflow on Wednesday and Thursday, the inflow in the remaining days compensated for this gap, resulting in a total net inflow of $255.3 million, increasing holdings by 2,421.94 BTC.'

On Thursday, BlackRock IBIT again set a record for the largest single-day reduction of 3,516.57 BTC, while on Friday, market sentiment improved with an inflow of 2,601.9 BTC, and Fidelity increased its holdings by 3,684.64 BTC that day. Currently, BTC prices have rebounded, maintaining a wide fluctuation around $98,000.