Regarding ETFs, last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $244 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $38.2 million.
In terms of the market, Bitcoin continues its rebound trend, but the trading volume is low. After the US stock market opens today, we need to pay close attention to the trading volume situation. If the volume does not increase, the possibility of the price encountering resistance above 100,000 will be very high. As the price rises, Bitcoin will face increasing pressure. Over the past two days, it has been fluctuating between 96,000 and 100,000, with about 5% volatility in the crypto market being very normal. Currently, bulls and bears are competing, and neither side wants to easily give in, so this is a suitable time for swing trading while keeping an eye on pullback opportunities. At present, altcoins are only following the market and have not established independence.
Currently, we need to pay attention to:
January 9
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting (03:00)
January 10
US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment (10,000) (21:30)
US December unemployment rate (21:30)
CPI on January 15
Based on this data, the market will form expectations for the first interest rate cuts in January/March/May. The better the data (here 'good' refers to being favorable for us), the higher the probability of rate cuts in March and the more expected rate cuts for the entire year.
At the same time, there will also be a dot plot in March — meaning that March will provide the expected number of interest rate cuts for the entire year. If January data is favorable and a very dovish tone is given in January, then the expectation for rate cuts in March will increase, and a bull market is likely to continue. If rate cuts are delayed until May, then it is likely that we will experience range-bound fluctuations until April before a rally begins.
In addition, there is a complex variable, which is the Trump factor. The Trump factor is the main reason for the crazy rise of BTC starting in November, with Trump officially taking office on January 20. Trump's impact on the market is multifaceted:
Firstly, his economic policies may adopt direct interest rate cuts to stimulate the stock market and the economy.
Secondly, his policies may lead to recurring inflation; Powell's suppression of the 25-year expectations in December also considered the influence of Trump.
Thirdly, his direct benefits to the crypto market may lead to a direct rally of some benefiting cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, the topic of Trump is a very grand topic, and it is difficult to clearly explain the pros and cons in a few words. After confirming the general direction, one can focus on choosing cryptocurrencies related to Trump.
Next, there is not much we can do; on one hand, we observe the situation, and on the other, we respond timely to emerging uncertainties for the future. If everything goes smoothly, perhaps 'the big one is really coming'; if not, we may have to return to the fluctuations of April to August last year.