The likelihood of the U.S. Solana ETF listing in 2025 reaches 77%: Head of research at VanEck
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, the likelihood of a Solana ETF listing in the U.S. this year is even higher than the market's optimistic forecasts.
On January 1, the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated that the likelihood of a U.S. Solana ETF listing in 2025 is approximately 77%. In a post on platform X, Sigel described Polymarket's forecast as "lower than fair value."
Sigel's optimism reflects the industry's expectations for more cryptocurrency ETF listings in the U.S. following the November election victory of President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has stated he wants to make America the "crypto capital of the world."
The market predicts outcomes by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating based on expected results. According to Polymarket's website, the expected ETF listing rate has risen to about 84% as of January 2.
Terraform co-founder Do Kwon pleads not guilty in U.S. court
Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon appeared in U.S. court on January 2, 2025, and pleaded not guilty in the first hearing for this former tech executive since he was extradited to the U.S.
The struggling cryptocurrency founder appeared in Manhattan before U.S. District Judge Robert W. Lehrburger of the Southern District of New York on Thursday afternoon to plead guilty and agree to be detained without bail.
This former tech executive faces nine different charges, including securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, and commodities fraud, due to his role in the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
A conference on the situation will be held on January 8, 2025, for the defense and prosecution to share evidence and discuss the motions leading to the trial.
The hearing marks a significant milestone in the legal saga of the former tech executive, which has seen many twists since 2023, when Montenegrin court officials considered extraditing the Terraform co-founder to the U.S. or his home country of South Korea.
Memecoins will continue to lose market share to AI coins: Dragonfly VC
According to a venture capitalist, AI agent tokens will continue to outperform memecoins in 2025, but their growth momentum may slow down in 2026.
"Memecoins will continue to lose market share to 'AI agent' coins. I see this as a shift from financial nihilism to excessive financial optimism," said Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner of Dragonfly Capital, in a post on January 1 on X.
Qureshi said the "AI agent craze" could last until 2025 but will not last forever. As more advanced AI products emerge, people will lose interest in social media chatbots.
"Eventually it will die. This is not a long-term disruption worth noting from AI, but it will be the obsession of CT as it is the most social," he said.
AI chatbots have become popular in the cryptocurrency industry, providing users with insights and market price predictions.
In the past 24 hours, the total trading volume of memecoins has decreased by nearly 21.5%, while the trading volume of AI tokens and leading data has increased by 7.95%, according to CoinMarketCap.
China tightens cryptocurrency trading oversight with new forex rules
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China has issued regulations requiring domestic banks to monitor and mark high-risk transactions involving cryptocurrency assets.
On December 31, the South China Morning Post reported that new regulations in mainland China will make it harder for people to purchase digital assets.
Under regulations, banks must monitor and report high-risk forex trading activities. This includes cross-border gambling, shadow banking, and illegal cross-border financial activities related to cryptocurrency assets.
Chinese regulators also require banks to monitor the identity-based activities of individuals and organizations involved, their sources of funds, and their transaction frequencies.
Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer at ZhiHeng law firm in Shanghai, said new regulations would provide further grounds to punish cryptocurrency trading and added that China's cryptocurrency regulatory stance is likely to continue tightening.
IRS issues temporary relief order on changes to cryptocurrency basis calculation methods
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued a temporary order relaxing capital regulations that require cryptocurrency holders on centralized exchanges to switch to less-than-ideal accounting methods.
The IRS's initial ruling states that if investors hold cryptocurrency assets at a CeFi brokerage and do not choose their preferred accounting method, such as HIFO (Highest In, First Out) or specific identification method, the brokerage will default to reporting sales using FIFO.
FIFO, or "First In, First Out," is the default method for calculating capital gains tax in the U.S. This method is calculated by assuming that the oldest cryptocurrency purchased will be sold first, pushing the taxpayer's capital gains income higher.
Shehan Chandrasekera, tax strategy director at Cointracker, said in a December 31 post on X that: "You will no longer have to adhere to FIFO as before."
Chandrasekera warns that the immediate adoption of this regulation could "spell disaster" for many cryptocurrency taxpayers during a bull market.
Winners and losers
Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) was at $96,601, Ether (ETH) at $3,448, and XRP at $2.42. The total market capitalization is $3.40 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies, the three altcoins with the highest price increases this week are DeXe (DEXE) at 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 55.02%, and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 41.76%.
The three altcoins with the largest price declines this week are Bitget Token (BGB) at 15.94%, Movement (MOVE) at 13.69%, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 12.73%. For more information on cryptocurrency prices, read Cointelegraph's market analysis.
The most memorable quotes
What started as a sarcastic comment about cryptocurrency with Dogecoin has evolved into a sophisticated vertical market attracting significant capital flows and attention from institutions.
DWF Labs, cryptocurrency venture capital firm
Institution adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, further driven by the inflow of funds into U.S.-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Steno Research, independent financial research firm
While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to generate a meaningful rally next year.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research
In my view, a few weeks of consolidation could set the stage for a major breakout. $131.5K+ in Q1 2025 seems inevitable. See you there.
Jason Williams, entrepreneur and investor
Current agents can easily be manipulated to say crazy things that harm their brand or can be hacked to steal their entire resources.
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital
Emerging stories like AI-driven investments, decentralized AI agents, and tokenized assets suggest a technology-driven shift, albeit with additional risks.
Alvin Kan, CEO at Bitget Wallet
Prediction of the week
Ether may struggle to generate meaningful rallies in 2025: 10x research
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said Ether may not be the smartest investment choice for the 2025 rally, as this asset could yield much lower returns than Bitcoin.
Other analysts say they are waiting for further confirmation from price charts to see which direction prices will go.
Thielen noted in the December 30 market report that: "While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to generate a meaningful rally next year."
Thielen said: "While we appreciate the volatility of Ethereum, we believe this is still a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC again in 2025." "Thus, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'stay away.'"
Thielen said one of the key metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he noted that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, declining about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increasing risk of many validators leaving the network.
FUD of the week
The explosion of the Cybertruck at the Trump hotel is related to a bomb or fireworks: Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a bomb or fireworks caused the explosion of the Tesla Cybertruck outside Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas. Authorities are investigating the incident in the direction that it could be an act of terrorism.
In a subsequent post on X on January 1, after confirming that Tesla is investigating the incident, Musk stated: "All remote measurement data from the vehicle was positive at the time of the explosion."
Police said the Cybertruck was filled with fireworks, gasoline, and camping fuel.
Officials have not confirmed the identity of the Cybertruck driver who died in the explosion that injured seven others, but stated that a joint investigation by federal, state, and local authorities is underway to identify the suspect and determine if this was an act of terrorism.
The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department stated in a post on X that: "Current findings suggest this is an isolated incident and there are no signs of a larger plot."
Illegal cryptocurrency advertising remains rampant in the UK despite FCA warnings.
Illegal cryptocurrency advertising continues to appear in the UK despite the country's financial regulator having requested cryptocurrency projects to remove ads targeting the country.
According to a Financial Times report, 54% of the 1,702 warnings issued by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) from October 2023 to October 2024 ended with the removal of illegal cryptocurrency advertisements. The report stated that the remaining cryptocurrency-related promotional programs continue.
The FCA has yet to penalize companies that fail to remove cryptocurrency ads that violate FCA rules. Regulations require digital asset promotional programs to be approved in advance by the FCA or a business authorized by the FCA.
