• On January 6, Bitcoin faced pressure from a high of $98,680 and retraced, reaching a low of $97,900. Subsequently, bulls began to consolidate and build strength, quickly surging to a high of $99,300.

Capital Inflow Situation

• The U.S. spot ETF saw a rebound in inflows in January 2025. As of January 3, the inflow to U.S. spot ETFs was $256 million to BTC. On January 4, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $908.1 million, with Fidelity FBT net inflow at $357 million, and BlackRock IBIT and ARK ARKB seeing inflows of $253 million and $222 million, respectively.

Technical Analysis

• On January 3, Bitcoin's fast and slow lines formed a golden cross, indicating that the market still has some upward momentum. However, the RSI value is between 60-70, nearing the overbought zone, so caution is needed regarding short-term pullback risks. The short-term moving averages are on an upward trend, indicating strong upward momentum in the short term.

• After retracing from a high on January 4, Bitcoin surged again, but by January 6, the price of Bitcoin experienced a certain degree of decline. Technical indicators may change with price fluctuations and need further observation for confirmation.

Influencing Factors

• Macroeconomic Environment: The U.S. dollar index has recently weakened, benefiting the price performance of Bitcoin and other non-dollar assets. However, some countries have strengthened their regulatory efforts on the cryptocurrency market, such as the Chinese government's implementation of stricter regulations on cryptocurrency trading. Although this has not had a significant impact on short-term prices, there is uncertainty in the long term.

• Market Sentiment: Investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2025, with analysts predicting that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 or even higher in 2025. However, some are concerned that the current price is close to a cyclical high, and the previous gains have led some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The market needs time to digest the gains and find new upward momentum.

• Specific Events: The FTX debtor team announced that the restructuring plan has officially come into effect, and the same day is the first distribution registration date for holders of approved claims, which may bring capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. In addition, the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20, and the market expects that the U.S. government may introduce more cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory policies, providing upward momentum for the Bitcoin market, although some investors believe that Bitcoin may experience a pullback during the inauguration ceremony.