Bitcoin has rebounded from the bottom and is currently consolidating near the first resistance at $98,000. It hasn’t yet broken out of a major volatility range. It is expected to hover around this level for about a week before a valid breakthrough occurs, so be patient!
Tomorrow, January 6, the U.S. Congress will certify Trump's official election. The inauguration date is January 20. Caution is advised for shorting within the next two weeks. Today’s pullback should be a buying opportunity to replenish positions. A defensive stance around $97,200 is sufficient. Currently, shorting doesn’t yield much, and experimenting has little significance. Many people are trapped below, still hoping for a drop to $80,000 or $70,000.
I recommend still buying the dips before mid-March; avoid shorting. To make big money in a bull market, one must rely on buying the dips. As long as you don't chase the top, you won't get hurt.
Recently, the AI Agent track has surged wildly, and friends are asking: Is it still possible to get in?
Here are my thoughts: Don't be timid, keep pushing forward. Next, let's analyze why the AI agent still has ten times the space for growth:
1. Unlike the 'pure expectation + community FOMO' of memes, agents will constantly iterate, and more powerful things will keep coming out.
2. The summer of AI agents is vastly different from previous expectations and the speed of implementation.
AI agents, whether considering the trillion-dollar industry prospects of web2 AI or the on-chain integration of web3 AI, have immense potential. The key factor is that more and more extraordinarily powerful agents will emerge.
For example, aixbt, a newly launched agent that analyzes cryptocurrency opportunities 24/7, has already captured user attention more effectively than the top influencers in the crypto space, and I believe this trend will only accelerate.
Currently, various AI Agents are emerging, creating a mesmerizing chaos. As an ordinary person entering this new track full of opportunities and traps, how should one choose? Here, I share my personal investment logic on the blockchain.
1) I see many people have almost liquidated all their mainstream coins from CEX and gone all-in into the AI Agent blockchain track. While this shows confidence in the new trend, it's not advisable.
In the pure AI MEME phase, the on-chain AI narrative can still maintain some information asymmetry due to the 'bias' of certain mainstream groups. However, as we enter the AI infra phase, this 'information asymmetry' has been significantly reduced. Many geek developers, technical researchers, and even numerous VC institutions are now focusing on the emerging narrative of AI Agents.
This means that the era of blindly following trends to easily profit is long gone. On-chain investments today are fraught with both risks and opportunities, and fully betting on the AI narrative carries extremely high risks, potentially even exceeding the risks of entering at the end of the chaotic era and the beginning of the stable era. Therefore, a wise move is to gradually adjust positions on-chain, avoiding reckless all-in bets.
2) On-chain position layout is recommended to be 5 + 4 + 1:
For large positions, select projects like ai16z, ZEREBRO, $AIXBT, $GOAT, Virtual, etc., which have already emerged as consensus leaders, similar to how DeFi Summer heavily invested in MKR, COMP, UNI, LINK, etc.
Although this approach may lead to a short-term opportunity cost by missing out on other smaller coins, in the long run, it is definitely a reliable strategy to remain in the game (seeking stability).
Mid-position selections like $arc, $REI, $Focai, $ELIZA, $Swarms, $SPORE, $SNAI, $ALCH, $NEUR, etc., are still in the chaotic battle phase of technical framework standards and innovation models.
If further subdivided, it can be categorized into the following levels: Large framework standards > Innovative Agent applications > Standalone AI > Vertical platform services. The core logic here is that large framework standards, due to their universal applicability and foundational nature, undoubtedly have the greatest development space and upper limits. Standalone AI may be limited by a narrow functional scope. As for innovative applications, while they have great potential, they also come with many uncertainties and are important areas for seeking growth.
Small positions chasing various flying CA small projects may look appealing at first glance, but they are projects like $MetaV, $stoic, $SYMX, $TAOCAT, $ZAILGO, $POLY, etc., that have significant market fluctuations without enough time to research. There will be many similar projects initially, but the mixed fakes among them will also be the most numerous. (We need to be discerning).
From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, attention is wealth, and the attention on AI agents will continue to snowball, growing larger and faster. Just keep moving in the current direction, and you will get better and better.
