Here are some important events in the United States in January 2025 that could affect the global economy:
President Trump takes office
Date: January 20
Event content: Trump will be officially inaugurated as the US President and is expected to issue multiple executive orders covering industries such as immigration, energy and cryptocurrency. He may also impose tariffs on goods from multiple regions and crack down on illegal immigration.
Impact analysis: These policies will not only affect the US business environment, but may also have a profound impact on global supply and demand. In particular, expectations of trade policies may cause fluctuations in global currency markets, which in turn may affect foreign exchange rates and investor confidence. In addition, the Trump administration's policy uncertainty poses risks to the market, especially the impact on currencies such as the euro, Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and RMB has not yet been fully reflected in the current market trend.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting
Time: Specific date not clarified
Event Content: The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting to discuss and decide on the direction of monetary policy for 2025.
Impact Analysis: The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will directly affect market liquidity, thus impacting the global financial market. In a scenario of good economic growth and employment while inflationary pressures persist, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have slowed down, which may spark widespread discussion in the market, as rate cuts could affect the valuation of various assets, especially under the expectation of rising interest rates, growth stocks and highly valued stocks may face greater pressure.
Release of the monthly employment report in the United States
Time: January 10
Event Content: The United States will release the monthly employment report for January.
Impact Analysis: The employment report is one of the important indicators of the health of the U.S. economy. Strong job growth is often accompanied by an increase in consumer confidence, which can further drive consumer spending, an important engine of the U.S. economy. If the employment data performs well, it will help maintain the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy, thus positively impacting the global economy; conversely, it may trigger market concerns about the economic outlook, which in turn affects the global financial market.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Season Begins
Time: January
Event Content: The earnings season for the fourth quarter in the United States will kick off in January.
Impact Analysis: The sustained growth of corporate profits is a key factor driving the rise of the stock market, especially in a high-inflation environment. How companies manage costs and improve efficiency will profoundly impact their earnings performance. If the overall earnings report performs well, it will boost investor confidence and drive the U.S. stock market up, which will have a positive impact on global stock markets; conversely, it may trigger market concerns about the economic outlook, leading to volatility in global stock markets.