Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Could Soar to $1 Million Due to Surge in U.S. Debt

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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently stated on social media platform X that, due to the continuous expansion of U.S. debt and potential changes in financial regulations, the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future.

Modifications to SLR Rules and Their Impact

Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules dictate the minimum liquidity that large banks must maintain, aimed at controlling risk. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these rules were temporarily relaxed to support the treasury market and lending capacity.

Hayes pointed out that if U.S. banks receive SLR exemptions again:

Liquidity Surge: Banks can use unlimited leverage to purchase treasury bonds, providing financing for the U.S. government and increasing the money supply in the market.

Increased Demand for Bitcoin: The expansion of the money supply could lead investors to seek inflation-resistant assets, driving up the price of Bitcoin.

The Relationship Between Global Monetary Policy and Bitcoin

Hayes believes that the continuous money printing by global central banks to address economic challenges will significantly increase cash liquidity, thereby raising the value of scarce assets like Bitcoin. He noted that the current global financial system is undergoing transformation, which could lead to:

Accelerated Money Printing: The elite may alleviate fiscal pressure by massively increasing the money supply.

Appreciation of Digital Assets: Due to the growing market demand for safe-haven assets, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will significantly benefit.

Dynamics of the Bitcoin Market

Hayes' views reflect the macroeconomic drivers behind the Bitcoin market:

Increased Popularity: Bitcoin is gradually becoming an asset class of interest to global investors.

Volatility and Regulation: Although the long-term outlook is positive, market volatility and regulatory changes may affect its short-term value.

As of now, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $97,837, and the market is at a critical juncture of adjustment and recovery.

Summary: Is the $1 Million Target Achievable?

Arthur Hayes' prediction, based on liquidity expansion and changes in monetary policy, provides a unique perspective. If SLR rules are modified, U.S. debt financing and the global trend of money printing could become powerful drivers for the long-term increase in Bitcoin's price. However, investors should remain vigilant about the short-term risks presented by market volatility and policy uncertainty.

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