January 4, 2025
[1] Fundamental Analysis
1. Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, Today's Probability of No Interest Rate Cut: 89.3% (Pay Attention to Risks in Late January, Hedge in Advance)
(2) Geopolitics: Israel and Hamas Attend Ceasefire Negotiations in Doha. (Today's Gold Price: 2639.5U)
(3) USD/JPY Exchange Rate: 157.29 (Interest Rate Hike Risk at the End of January, Interest Rate Spread Trading, Hedge in Advance)
(4) Non-Farm Payroll Data Arrives on January 10th (Uncertainty Risk, Observe Market 1-3 Days in Advance to Hedge a Certain Proportion of Positions)
(5) On January 4th, according to official news, MicroStrategy is seeking to raise $2 billion by selling preferred stock to advance its previously announced '21/21 Plan' to raise $42 billion over three years for purchasing Bitcoin.
[2] On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market Sentiment Analysis: 73 (Down 1 from Yesterday), BTC Funding Rate: 0.01%, Google Search Trend: 27 (Low-Level Accumulation), January 5th Options Pain Point: 98000U
(2) ETF Dynamics: Yesterday BTC Resumed Large Net Inflow of 9,356; ETH Resumed Negative Inflow of 17,000 (Institutions Shift to Volatility)
(3) Mining Data Analysis: 880.86 EH/s, Transaction Fee 4.29 Gas: 3, S19 Shutdown Coin Price: 63788-92324U
(4) BTC Market Cap Share: 55.6% (Significantly Decreased by 0.57% from Yesterday), ETH Market Cap Share: 12.42% (Increased by 0.2% from Yesterday), Altcoin Season Arrives;
(5) Today's Volatility Main Logic Review: Daily Breakout, Liquidity Resumes After New Year's Day, Institutional ETF Aggressively Buying
(6) BTC Support Level: 92888-96043 BTC Resistance Level: 99480-104377
(7) Total Market Value of Stablecoins: 205.871 billion (7-Day Growth: 0.29%). At Beijing Time 0:35:11, USDC Treasury Minted 149,077,359 USDC on Ethereum Blockchain.
(8) On-Chain Data
(9) Trading Philosophy: Seek the Good Conscience, Go with the Trend, Move in the Opposite Direction of the Trend, Do Not Let Price Fluctuations Disturb You!
Today's Trading Strategy: Plan Before Action, Calm Your Emotions Before Trading, Light Incense, Sit Quietly for 15 Minutes to Think About Trading Strategy, Drink Tea and Wait for Clear Thinking, Write the Trading Plan in a Document and Send it to CHATGPT, Apply Bayesian Theorem to Analyze the Probability of Winning, Ask Whether the Altcoin to Be Built Can Outperform BTC's Cycle Increase!
[3]
Recent Major Potential Positive Factors
1. FTX Compensation Funds Enter the Market (Effective January 3rd, $16 billion)
2. Liquidity Resumes After New Year's Day (Institutions Begin New Fiscal Year Layout)
3. MicroStrategy Continues to Resume Bitcoin Purchases After the Holiday (Purchased 19,400 BTC Last Week)
Recent Major Potential Negative Factors
1. Japan's Next Interest Rate Hike Surprise (January/March)
2. The U.S. Pauses Interest Rate Cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty Before Non-Farm Payroll Data (January 10th, Observe Market 3-5 Days in Advance)
