Currently, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is undergoing a significant change in supply dynamics. Activities between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) are becoming more frequent, and the sentiment and trend of the market are being influenced by the interplay between these two types of holders.
According to the latest analytical data from CryptoQuant, historically, changes in this holding structure often signal an impending local top in the market, or even a cyclical peak. Of course, the specific impact of this trend needs to be judged in conjunction with the macroeconomic environment and the overall market conditions.
Short-term holders VS long-term holders
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost points out that short-term holders, especially investors who have bought Bitcoin in recent months, are profoundly influencing market sentiment fluctuations. By analyzing the realized prices of short-term holders, we can identify some key support and resistance levels, reflecting the psychological and technical nodes where investors may make significant decisions.
Specifically, the key price ranges for short-term holders include:
General average realized price: $41,000
Overall realized price for short-term holders: $85,000
Price for buyers within one week to one month: $99,000
One to three months holders: $81,000
Realized price for holders of three to six months: $60,000
These price levels not only represent important psychological price points for market participants but also provide significant references for future support and resistance ranges.
At present, the short-term holders' spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) remains neutral, with a value of 1. The STH SOPR is a key indicator for assessing the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders, showing whether they tend to sell profitable Bitcoin. The last time Bitcoin's price briefly broke the historical high of $108,000, the current neutral SOPR indicates that the selling activities of short-term holders have not resulted in significant profit-taking. This means that at the current price level, there is limited momentum for large-scale selling, and the market may still maintain a certain degree of stability.
However, the decline in STH SOPR indicates that realized profits are decreasing, which may constrain the upward momentum of the market in the short term. Although Bitcoin's price may face some pressure in the short term, the demand from short-term holders is still effectively absorbing the selling pressure from long-term holders, preventing a sharp decline in prices.
Will there be a consolidation or an adjustment?
Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is about $97,357, having risen by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Although this slight increase has restored some positive market sentiment for Bitcoin, it is still some distance from breaking the six-figure mark and refreshing the historical high of $108,000.
In this market context, many analysts believe that Bitcoin's price may enter a consolidation phase, or even experience a deeper correction. In the short term, the market may continue to play out the game between the demand from short-term holders and the selling pressure from long-term holders, waiting for new driving factors or external market changes to determine the further price trend.
Remember, investing is like sailing at sea; the winds and waves can change direction at any time, but with Mr. Qiu guiding your course, what is there to fear about the future's changes!
