Key macro events to pay special attention to in January include:
January 3: FTX begins compensating $16 billion in funds.
January 10: Non-farm employment data released.
January 15: Consumer Price Index (CPI) released.
January 20: Trump is sworn in.
January 30: Interest rate decision announced.
The FTX debtors' restructuring plan has come into effect, and the first batch of customers will receive refunds within 60 days. It is widely believed in the industry that this is a potential influx of funds; as for the non-farm payroll data and CPI data, they serve the interest rate decision at the end of this month, and it is highly likely that the rate cut will be paused this month. Therefore, the key point this month is the transition of power on the 20th for Trump, as this will be the time for him to fulfill his promises, making it the most important emotional node of the month.
From on-chain data, the area between 60500 and 66500 has accumulated 2.145 million BTC, and the current area between 95500 and 100500 has also accumulated 2 million BTC. This is an important on-chain support area, which is why adjustments generally revolve around 95000, as prices often fluctuate near whale accumulation.
From a technical perspective, the current BTC.D market share has fallen below 57%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is on a continuous rebound, with ETH starting to show a stronger trend than BTC. Coupled with the spot ETF data, institutions are beginning to increase their investment in ETH, so partners should focus on ETH in the first quarter, as opportunities may exceed those in BTC.
On Friday, the market showed a rebound, with BTC and ETH's daily MACD structure turning green near the 0 axis, and both are currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, in a technical daily and four-hour bullish resonance state.
Starting next week, European and American institutions will gradually resume work, and liquidity will slowly recover, combined with the expectation of Trump taking office on the 20th. Therefore, next week will begin the game of Trump's promise fulfillment. If emotions and trends resonate, the first quarter's market will be worth looking forward to. This is also what I repeatedly told my partners; there will be adjustments around Christmas, and those with light positions should get in, as missing out is more uncomfortable than being temporarily stuck.
From the recent rebound, the compliance concepts and traditional varieties in the US have rebounded quickly, such as XRP, ADA, DOGE, XLM, AVAX, etc. As for the new public chain leader SUI, it has directly refreshed its all-time high, while other varieties have risen to varying degrees. The possibility of a significant broad-based rebound in altcoins during this round is low, and it is very likely that there will be rotations around core varieties in specific tracks. This is also what I previously mentioned; for altcoins, attention should be paid to leaders like UNI, LDO, AAVE in DeFi, LINK in oracle, TIA in modules, etc. The sign of the altcoin season starting is ETH strengthening significantly, and the biggest narrative for ETH this year is whether ETF staking can be approved. Once approved, the track will be completely opened up.
Still the same saying, embrace ETH, believe in the power of belief.