Bitcoin's price fluctuated between 91,000 and 97,000 this week. Below is a summary of the important events, on-chain data updates, and events to watch for next week. (Background: Bitcoin returned to 95,000, Ethereum surged to 3,400 USD; is market liquidity returning?) (Context: The Block Weekly) Bitcoin's rise is lackluster, the Federal Reserve has a high probability of not lowering interest rates in January, MicroStrategy plans to issue more shares to increase BTC holdings...) This week's (12/29-1/04) important events overview Bitcoin dynamics: A state government in the U.S. will announce the purchase of Bitcoin within four months; how does Bitcoin typically perform after New Year's Day? Vitalik Buterin: Praising "X platform community notes"; igniting discussions on "internet nation"! Elon Musk: Musk X renamed to PEPE, the new godfather; X changed its name back to Elon Musk, related meme coins plummeting; X payments are here! Tesla Cybertruck exploded outside Trump Hotel. United States: Do Kwon has been extradited to the U.S.; Bloomberg criticizes the Federal Reserve: "Dot plot" is the biggest source of market chaos. Europe: Getting ahead of the U.S.! European Central Bank should include Bitcoin in reserves. Switzerland: Initiating a petition to "establish Bitcoin reserves". Taiwan: Taiwan Blockchain (30 most influential people of the year); Financial Supervisory Commission unveils the "Financial Market Innovation Department"; the 88 Club case exploded into the crypto space! Hong Kong: DAO regulatory framework. South Korea: Opening up corporate investments in cryptocurrency; the South Korean stock market is severely affected by Bitcoin. China: The central bank released the (Financial Stability Report). Japan: Viewing cryptocurrency as an investment asset. MicroStrategy: "Issuing bonds to buy Bitcoin"'s virtuous cycle or breakdown, a stage peak may have formed; 10x Research: Leveraged Bitcoin narrative dissipating. 2025 Predictions: Kyle; DA Labs; hitesh.eth; venture capital firm Lightspeed; Nomos Labs; research institution Messari; venture company Dragonfly; are the top 10 crypto venture capitalists optimistic about the track?; United Kingdom (Financial Times); on-chain observation AI Agent; investment management company Galaxy. 2024 Review: 22 mainstream public chains; annual report of the public chain industry; celebrity meme coins collectively crashed; a16z selects practical AI tools; reviewing the crypto frenzy. This week's trading market data changes Sentiment and Sectors 1. Fear and Greed Index This week's market sentiment indicator dropped from 73 (greed) to 66 (greed), remaining in the (greed) range throughout the week. 2. Funding Rate Heatmap This week, Bitcoin's funding rate peaked at 14.62% and fell to a low of 1.27%. The funding rate heatmap shows the trend of funding rate changes for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green (zero rate) to yellow (50% positive rate), while black represents negative rates; the white K-line chart displays Bitcoin price fluctuations, contrasting with the funding rate. 3. Sector Performance According to Artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was 3.4%, with Store of Value, Utilities and Services, and Gen 1 Smart Contract occupying the top three spots at 12.4%, 10.9%, and 9.0%, respectively. Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 2.7% and 3.9%, respectively. The three worst-performing sectors were Centralized Exchange (-22.4%), Perp DEX (-2.1%), and Staking Services (-1.6%). Market Liquidity 1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply This week's total cryptocurrency market cap data showed an increase from 3.32 trillion USD to 3.37 trillion USD. BTC market share is at 53.69%, and ETH market share is at 11.68%. The total supply of stablecoins, as an important indicator of market health and liquidity, decreased from 189.97 billion USD to 189.17 billion USD, a reduction of 800 million USD, or approximately 0.42%. 2. Potential Purchasing Power within Exchanges Data shows that this week, the exchange assets showed a net inflow, particularly with a significant inflow of USDT after the U.S. elections. This phenomenon may indicate that investors are preparing for upcoming market volatility; capital inflow into exchanges may imply an increase in short-term purchasing demand. Additionally, the highest single-day net inflow in December reached 15.8 billion USD, while this week's highest single-day net inflow reached 5.46 billion USD, indicating ample market liquidity, but significantly reduced compared to previous weeks. 3. Crypto Dynamics In this week's crypto market, Automata, DeXe, and Secret led with increases of +122%, +54.2%, and +36.2%, respectively, with mainstream coins generally rising. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current altcoin season index is 47 (down 0). Bitcoin Technical Indicators 1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Funds This week, Bitcoin ETF funds flowed out 612.9 million USD. 2. Bitcoin Contract Open Interest According to the data, Bitcoin's contract open interest on exchanges fell from 58.23 billion USD after rising to 57.58 billion USD, followed by a price drop, but the open interest remains high, indicating active market leverage trading. 3. Bitcoin Historical Monthly Return According to historical data for week 53, Bitcoin's return was +3.26%. This performance is below the historical weekly average return (+4.01%) and median (+1240.84%), and compared to the previous week (week 52) return (-1.32%). 4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin (97,000 USD) is in the "consider dollar-cost averaging" range. 5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index mostly remained in negative territory, indicating relatively weak demand in the U.S. market, similar to last week's trend. However, since mid-December, the negative premium has become more pronounced, and during several pullbacks, Bitcoin's price has significantly dropped, further reflecting the U.S. market's sensitivity to price declines and the pressure of low demand. A positive premium may indicate that U.S. investors' purchasing power is stronger than in the global market. 6. Bitcoin Net Profit and Loss Performance The net profit and loss indicator for Bitcoin shows significant fluctuations in the market's realized net profit and loss, with a clear profit-taking phenomenon as the price retreated from its peak. The net profit and loss data shows a rapid shift from a profit peak to a negative value, reflecting a gradual shift in market sentiment from optimism to caution. 7. Long-term Bitcoin Holders According to on-chain data, the net position of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) continues to decrease, but compared to previous concentrated sell-offs, the selling pressure has shown significant signs of slowing down. As Bitcoin's price stabilizes at a high level, some holders may have completed profit-taking, and market capital flow is gradually tending towards balance. However, if selling pressure continues to weaken, signals of long-term holders reaccumulating positions will help restore market sentiment and provide support for future price increases. 8. Bitcoin On-chain Purchasing Power According to on-chain data, the supply of short-term holders of Bitcoin continues to increase, reflecting active market trading activities, while the supply of long-term holders gradually decreases, indicating that some capital has chosen to take profits. This shift in supply structure indicates an improvement in market liquidity but is also accompanied by higher price volatility.

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