This article is primarily based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, and is for contemplation only.
Author: defioasis
Translation by: Colin Wu
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development following the DeFi Summer, with narrative-driven investment opportunities emerging continuously on-chain. According to the author’s observation, as the concept that everything can be a meme deepens and the rapid issuance of assets through Pump Fun takes mainstream status, memes can start from 0, and (without launching on leading CEXes) the market cap limit for on-chain space is approximately $1 billion. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, while leading CEXes have become the last link for on-chain investment exits. Due to increasing conflicts with VCCoin and the community, new assets launched on leading CEXes often perform poorly; older coins that have been listed on leading CEXes mostly struggle, with team motivation lacking or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocks.
This article is primarily based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on segmented on-chain tracks, and serves merely as the author's superficial predictions, not as any investment advice, but for contemplation.
1. The monthly volume ratio of DEX/CEX will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume exceeded $320 billion in December 2024, setting a historical record for monthly trading, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX peaked at 13.86% in 2024. As Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX continue to optimize, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the meme sector and wealth effects are also important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market capitalization of AI agents/AI memes will exceed that of NFT during its peak, with at least one AI agents token surpassing $10 billion.
The combination of AI agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI agents emerging one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened the Pandora's box of AI agents, to the AI16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only taken a few months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation in the market, including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, especially ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, which have formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-tokens of AI agents rapidly being introduced to the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market capitalization of AI agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL on the Solana network within the Base network, alongside sub-tokens AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, which have nurtured the ecosystem and made VIRTUAL the highest market cap AI agents-related token, reaching $3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun will emerge.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad on the Solana network for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs, with thousands of Memecoins launched daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to emulate it, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as Tron network's SunPump, Aptos network's Uptos, and Base network's Clanker based on Farcaster.
In addition, the Memecoin sector is gradually growing, with the idea that everything can be a meme becoming more deeply ingrained, and increasingly strong demands for segmentation leading to the evolution of vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focusing on AI agents and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI agents have already become a $10 billion sector, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this reflects the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance based on different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into further segmented tracks.
4. At least 5 native tokens from the Base ecosystem will be launched on Binance spot.
As a barometer, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has yet to launch any native spot from the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecosystem effects of Base are more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster systems, with the Virtuals ecosystem market cap approaching $5 billion, leading in the Crypto x AI Agents space. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for listing on leading exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before Binance lists the first native spot from the Base ecosystem.
As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase in the United States, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open the fiat channel from Base — USDC to bank accounts. With the official entry of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the exchanges and networks that benefit the most. In addition, with Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic blueprint should further increase.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching above $1 billion in market cap.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed $2 billion USDC, ranking it as the fifteenth-largest exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market cap once exceeded $10 billion, with FDV surpassing $30 billion.
From the development trajectory of CEX, especially younger CEXes, most started with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the real branding moat comes from the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. The HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards of Hyperliquid bring the possibility of introducing exclusive assets, a capability that previous on-chain exchanges trying to transition from contracts to spot trading did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at the time of issuance. Given that launching on leading CEXes is difficult and costly, starting via spot position auctions on Hyperliquid has become a good option. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not yet officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market cap and trading volume on Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding $100 million in market cap. With HYPE's high market cap, it requires more funds for price increases; the platform collaborating with certain excellent exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increased trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
