Bitcoin is currently trading around the important psychological resistance level of $99,000 - $100,000, a price area that determines the next trend. This is not only a price milestone but also a battleground between selling pressure from retail investors and buying pressure from large institutions.

Market sentiment in the $99,000 - $100,000 area

  • Retail investors are taking profits aggressively: Similar to the period on December 25, 2024, selling pressure at this price range is increasing as retail investors take advantage of high prices to lock in profits.

  • Supply pressure exceeding demand: If cash flow from institutions is not strong enough to absorb this supply, it is highly likely that BTC will return to retest the support area of $92,000 - $93,000.

Signs needed for BTC to continue the uptrend

To overcome the resistance level and maintain an upward trend, Bitcoin needs to meet two important factors:

  1. Large trading volume maintained at the $98,000 - $100,000 area:

    • Institutions need to absorb all selling pressure from retail investors, ensuring that any sell orders are bought immediately.

  2. Signal coordination of cash flow:

    • When a large institution actively maintains the price, they send a clear signal to other smart money flows to participate in pushing the price, creating momentum for a strong rally, forcing short positions to close.

Expectations for a new bullish cycle

If large trading volumes appear, Bitcoin could open a new bullish cycle, with the next target to surpass the $100,000 mark. This will mark a new growth phase, reinforcing market confidence in BTC's ability to maintain its upward trend in the long term.

Trading strategy for this phase

Currently, the market is in a fragile balance between two scenarios:

  • Scenario 1: BTC breaks through the $100,000 area and enters a new bullish cycle.

  • Scenario 2: BTC fails to hold the $99,000 - $100,000 area, adjusting back to support at $92,000 - $93,000.

The probability ratio for scenario 1 is higher, as BTC is still in an upward trend. Therefore, investors should consider one of two approaches:

  • Take profit on 70-80% of the portfolio: Ensure profit preservation in case the market adjusts.

  • Stand aside and observe: Wait for more signals of large volume at the current price range to determine a clearer trend before deciding to reinvest.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a crucial moment to determine the next trend. The possibility of breaking through the $100,000 area remains a viable scenario if institutional cash flow is strong and consensus exists. However, investors need to be cautious, closely monitor trading volume developments to have an appropriate strategy, and avoid unnecessary risks.