Author: defioasis
Editor: Colin Wu
2024 could be the most important year for on-chain development following DeFi Summer, with narrative-type investment opportunities emerging endlessly on-chain. According to the author’s observation, as everything becomes a Meme and the rapid asset issuance of Pump Fun dominates the mainstream, Memes can start from 0, while (without launching on major CEX) the market cap ceiling in the on-chain space is roughly 1 billion USD. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, and major CEX has become the last link for on-chain investment exits. Due to escalating conflicts with the community, new assets listed on major CEX often perform poorly; while older coins that have already been listed on major CEX mostly struggle, lacking team momentum or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a waiting state.
This article is mainly based on predictions made regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on the on-chain segmented tracks. It is merely the author's superficial prediction and should not be considered as any investment advice, but rather for thought.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to The Block data, DEX trading volume exceeded 320 billion USD in December 2024, setting a record for the highest single month, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly DEX/CEX trading volume ratio peaked at 13.86% in 2024. As Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX continue to optimize, it may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the Meme track and the wealth effect are among the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed that of NFTs at their peak, with at least one AI Agents token reaching a market value exceeding 10 billion USD.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a matter of months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks under development and operation in the market, including ai16z – Eliza, Virtuals Protocol – Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro – Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, especially ai16z – Eliza and Virtuals Protocol – Game Framework, which have already formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-coins of AI Agents rapidly being introduced into the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the current total market value of AI Agents related tokens has reached 12 billion USD, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL in the Solana network on the Base network, along with sub-tokens like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market cap AI Agents related token at 3.5 billion USD.
3. It is expected that there will be 3-5 vertical launch tracks based on Pump Fun.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for quickly deploying tokens at a very low cost on the Solana network, launching thousands of Memecoins daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have started to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually growing, with everything being a Meme, and the demand for segmentation is becoming stronger, gradually evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focusing on AI Agents and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI Agents have become a ten billion segment, and DeSci has also shown potential with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset release under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.
4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot.
As a barometer, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spots for the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and Farcaster series, among which the ecological market value of the Virtuals series is approaching 5 billion USD, positioning it as a leader in Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on major exchange listings, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.
As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase in the United States, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat currency channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base could be the exchanges and networks that benefit the most from the dividends. Furthermore, with Base head Jesse Pollak officially joining Coinbase's executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic blueprint should further rise.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities with a market value exceeding 1 billion.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed 2 billion USD in USDC, equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market value once exceeded 10 billion USD, with FDV surpassing 30 billion USD.
From the development path of CEX, especially relatively young CEX, most originate from contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards introduce the possibility of exclusive asset entry, which previous attempts to transition from contracts to spot trading on on-chain exchanges did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. In a situation where it is relatively difficult and costly to launch on major CEX, starting through spot auction on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki - Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding 100 million USD in market value. With HYPE's high market value, pumping requires more funds; it is evidently more cost-effective for the platform to collaborate with some excellent exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
