Bitcoin price stops rising? What will happen next?
The current rise in BTC prices is mainly due to the serial liquidation of short positions, because the ETF is actually experiencing a net outflow of funds in this wave of price increases, while the coin price rose early this morning, so the market maker’s intention is now very clear, which is to explode the contract shorts and liquidate them as fuel for the rise.
When the short positions are liquidated, they are forced to buy back the shorted coins, forming a buying order, which causes the price to rise. This will liquidate more short positions, resulting in a chain of liquidations, from 91,500 all the way to 97,500 (around 97,000, which is also a chip-dense area). I analyzed this with you a few days ago. At that time, BTC was still 93,000.
Currently, although the operator has exploded past 97500, the shorts seem enchanted, still shorting, and there is still 10 billion in fuel. So, I think the operator might take a break, and after pulling back to around 95000-96000, it may explode upward again.
The shorts are not stopping, the explosion of shorts continues, and the pullbacks are luring shorts, fattening them up for slaughter.
In the past two days, secondary altcoins have been heavily drained by on-chain AI, and there is basically no market activity to speak of. This situation may continue until February. Yesterday, various golden dog AIs and AI framework type swarms were extremely FOMO. After launching moonshot yesterday, 100 million FDV directly doubled the price, subsequently driving ALCH and others to continue rising. Binance launched perpetual contracts for ai16z, zerebro, and griffain, causing the market to drop instantly. As previously mentioned, many on-chain projects that launch for the first time likely see a drop in the first wave. If it is spot trading, there is still room to play!
As for why not to invest in spot markets?
Leading project ai16z virtual has heavy chips in the front row. Once it goes live on Binance, it may complete its distribution. I estimate that these projects will not be available in the spot market for a while, and may choose hot tech projects with FDV of 100-200 million, such as swarms and alch.
The on-chain AI market will continue at least until January, which is relatively safe. Everyone must pay attention to risks and not blindly invest in a frenzy. The vast majority of on-chain AI projects will ultimately go to zero, so do not hold on to faith in them. Leading AI projects can be held longer, but beyond that, do not over fantasize. The funds earned from AI can be slowly returned to the secondary market to purchase valuable coins, which is currently the most correct strategy.
AI Agent old coins are correcting, and today these four new coins are surging strongly.
Although the vast majority of AI coins are correcting, note that it is not a halt. If there is no correction, even I would be anxious; declines can actually be a good thing. Yesterday, I mentioned that the collective sentiment was overly FOMO, and there would inevitably be a need for correction. Moreover, ai16z went live on the BN contract yesterday, marking a phase peak, so the current pullback is a good opportunity to accumulate chips.
Let's use the DeFi boom as a metaphor. In the beginning, the market mainly focused on the competition between swap and lending protocols, which are both considered the cornerstones of DeFi. Once leading projects like Uniswap and Aave stabilized, it was time for infrastructure projects like $LINK to shine. Later, the market entered a phase of various parasitic attacks and complex stacking plays, and eventually, the track became saturated, leading to some so-called 'micro-innovations' or even 'pseudo-innovations.'
When some projects develop to a point where issues can only be understood through tools or repeated study, it actually means that this track is nearing its end. Throughout this process, as long as you closely follow the hot bubble and continuously increase the quantity of $Aave, $Uni, and $LINK, theoretically, you can capture the biggest gains when the bull market approaches its end.
Therefore, during this market correction, I have already taken profits on some small and medium coins that performed well. Now I am slowly increasing my positions in several coins with a market cap exceeding 1B through regular investment.
Simultaneously digging into new projects while investing small amounts for high returns. Continue to focus on opportunities with a market cap below 10M and above 100M to find the next potential hotspot.
New AI continues to surge, completely ignoring the corrections of the two leading coins.
Dexscreener shows that the trading volume of AI Agent projects ranks in the top 20 across the chain. While 'old coins' are correcting, some new projects are strongly rising. Interestingly, new AI Agents are starting to present more different concepts and narratives. After all, new things, new narratives, and new technologies might lead those who missed the AI benefits to think about catching up with new developments.
Swarms (AI Agent infrastructure, reportedly second only to ai16z in GitHub stars): +92%, FDV 226M.
ZAILGO (AI Agent MEME, very mysterious and special, currently conducting marketing in the form of a sci-fi story, unsure of future plans): +181%, FDV 67M.
The two coins mentioned above have a wealth story: a whale sold ai16z to buy swarms and ZAILGO.
SANDY (a video AI Agent, continuously publishing video content on X): +28601%, FDV 18.7M.
AILIVE (3D AI Agent, currently live streaming its self-training growth): +15391%, FDV 13M.
The above projects are all on the SOL chain.
AI Agents are being born crazily, and the risks are very high, so please be cautious.
Binance is suppressing AI Agent by launching ai16z contracts while simultaneously listing BIO’s spot trading; is this an attempt to attract retail investors back into the trading?
Let's take a look at the new coins launched today: BIO
Today, BIO officially launches. Following Binance's announcement, Huobi, OKX, and ZB have all declared that spot trading will begin this afternoon at 6 PM. It is rare for a project to launch on four major exchanges simultaneously. The last project to do so was MOVE, which launched at 0.01 USD and rose to a maximum of 1.16 USD the next day, peaking at 1.226 USD, yielding a staggering 122 times increase. It is somewhat similar to Polkadot four years ago, and there is a large number of sub-DAOs beneath it, so it is expected that the upper valuation will be very high. Is the BIO launching today another hundred times coin in the bull market?
Can you buy after BIO launches?
The total issuance of BIO is 3.32 billion coins, currently valued at 219 million USD. Based on estimates, if the price is below 0.08 USD, it is a relatively safe entry point. In the current bull market where many new coins are rising sharply 1-2 days after launch, followed by relentless selling, everything is uncertain before launch. It is advised to proceed cautiously and observe the collection pricing and specific launch prices as references!
Why not rush to enter $BIO?
Let's look at the private offering; the first phase cost was 0.01054, the second phase cost was 0.02078, with an average return of several dozen times.
Let's take a look at the public offering: the first three phases have costs of 0.0256, 0.004277, and 0.06596, all starting with at least ten times the return. Do you think now at 0.74 is the right moment to grab this spot?
In the early stage, there was airdrop selling pressure, and both private and public placements will unlock some. Moreover, there are no benchmark coins in this sector. Currently, close to 1 billion, it is uncertain whether this is overvalued. The space and risk are not proportional, so it is advised to wait and observe.
The news of BIO's launch has already triggered a wave of Desci market activity.
This coin is about to take off, $DRUGS.
ca: CX9YDTED9TWgVXVoFy8JL9gSSAEWcTv4mzjLSv17LQsj
$DRUGS is a combination of Agent + Desci, and this AI has operated an on-chain fund for AI Agents.
This launch of BIO is not only an innovative attempt in the DeSci field but may also be the next hotspot in the crypto world; let's wait and see!
If $BIO performs well, liquidity will flow into this track for a while.
Some coins worth paying attention to -
$RIF - This token is related to antibiotics used for treating tuberculosis and is currently considered the leading project in DeSci + Meme.
$URO - A token related to compounds that extend lifespan, also widely discussed in the DeSci field.
$WORM - A project that combines AI and DeSci, with its unique narrative placing biological neural structures on the blockchain.
$MET - Related to the project Metasci, which integrates AI with scientific research, aiming to optimize the scientific research process through artificial intelligence.
$DESCI - A universal DeSci token that may be used across multiple platforms or projects.
$SCI - A token related to sharing and transparency of research data, promoting the decentralization of scientific research.
Drawing from my years of trading experience, I would like to share my views:
Recently, Pnut and People are expected to experience a wave of upward movement, so remember to take profits at high points.
On January 20, Trump will take office, and as the election hero, Pnut and the political meme coin People are expected to have a wave of hype. If you hold these two coins, you might consider exiting around January 20.
Regarding the coin People, I clearly tell everyone that it is best to sell everything before the election because once Trump takes office, the political-related hype will disappear, and the coin itself will lose its appeal. If you haven't sold yet, now is a good opportunity.
As for Neiro, it belongs to the dog series and has a larger narrative space. Previously, at 0.22, it surged, and I reminded everyone to sell at that point. If you didn't sell, you can now wait for it to go live on Coinbase North America when the market is good. Since it is already live on Coinbase international version, the chances of it launching on the North American main platform are high, but once it goes live, remember to sell.
Overall, I do not recommend anyone to enter these coins again. This article's main purpose is to provide a strategy for friends who already hold these coins to exit at a higher point. Even if these coins rise more later, it doesn't matter; switching to a stronger coin can also yield gains.
After selling these coins, consider converting to other more stable coins, like Pepe or Floki, which have institutional backing.
The biggest narrative for the next 3-4 months will still be the ETH upgrade and ETH ecosystem coins. Currently, Ethereum's ETF funds are surprisingly flowing in against the trend, while Bitcoin's ETF is seeing outflows. This indicates that institutions are adjusting their portfolios and are gradually shifting towards Ethereum. So, if you have funds after the election, paying attention to Ethereum-related coins might yield good returns.
Now, let's look at ACT; the coins that hot money enters cannot be too small in scale. I previously sold part of my holdings at 0.35, and plan to continue aiming for higher target positions with the rest. Looking today, the price has already dropped below 0.33, and in the short term, it will likely fluctuate for a while. Personally, I have exited completely and am looking for new altcoin opportunities.