Base Case: America First (Again)

Lower interest rates and pro-growth policies should support a modest global expansion, with the U.S. largely leading the way. Risks abound — not least the unpredictability of a new U.S. administration — but solid returns, rather than the exception, are the base case for much of Wall Street. Call it cautious optimism.

BlackRock Investment Institute

We always favor risk. We believe the U.S. continues to stand out compared to other developed markets, thanks to its strong growth and its ability to better leverage large-cap forces. We increased our overweight on U.S. equities and see the AI ​​theme expanding.

Global X

Global X believes that economic growth in 2025 could surprise on the upside. Struggling sectors such as manufacturing, combined with a new wave of investment in small and mid-cap companies, could extend the expansion phase of the cycle, translating into better market breadth and higher multiples. However, volatility in interest rates often rises during periods of high tariffs and protectionism, which is a potential risk to this outlook.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In a world where the exceptionalism of the U.S. is reinforced, amid a long business cycle, central banks' continued easing policies, and the additional support from the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening in the first quarter, we are bullish on U.S. risk assets.

Ned Davis Research

As we enter 2025, the financial markets appear mostly sunny. With the risks of deflation and low recession, the Federal Reserve's easing cycle continues, earnings growth is robust, and upward momentum is broadening. In this context, as we enter this year, we are bullish on the U.S. stock market relative to bonds and cash, favoring cyclical sectors over defensive ones, and focusing on themes like cryptocurrency, software AI, and durable goods.

Apollo Global Management

The outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong, with no signs of a major slowdown by 2025. We continue to see that interest rates will remain relatively high, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve continues to implement monetary easing policies.

BNY Mellon Wealth Management

In 2025, the continued easing policies of the Federal Reserve, the strength of the U.S. economy, and the potential boost from new government initiatives aimed at growth could pave the way for moderate growth. Lower short-term interest rates will reduce borrowing costs for many consumers and businesses, helping to boost consumer spending and economic activity. This backdrop should provide attractive opportunities for investors across asset classes.

Northern Trust Asset Management

Northern Trust Asset Management's baseline forecast for the 2025 economic outlook is a soft landing for the U.S. NTAM expects economic growth to be slightly below 2024 levels, with inflation further slowing to 2%, and the Federal Reserve to continue gradually cutting interest rates.

BNP Paribas

In our central case, the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing in early 2025, before idling in 2026, as the effects of import tariffs and immigration policies outweigh more growth-promoting measures.#BTC☀