Bitcoin is no longer rising? Is there one last drop?
The current rise in BTC prices is mainly due to the serial liquidation of short positions, because the ETF is actually experiencing a net outflow of funds in this wave of price increases, while the coin price rose early this morning, so the market maker’s intention is now very clear, which is to explode the contract shorts and liquidate them as fuel for the rise.
When the short positions are liquidated, they are forced to buy back the shorted coins, forming a buying order, which causes the price to rise. This will liquidate more short positions, resulting in a chain of liquidations, from 91,500 all the way to 97,500 (around 97,000, which is also a chip-dense area). I analyzed this with you a few days ago. At that time, BTC was still 93,000.
Although the dealer has exhausted the 97,500, the bears seem possessed, still shorting, and there is still 10 billion in fuel left. Therefore, I think the dealer will take a break, and after a pullback to around 95,000-96,000, there might be another wave of shorts.
From the hourly level: If Bitcoin can stabilize and fully break through $97,000, it will have significant implications for the future.
Bitcoin has not yet fully broken through; two possible trends are predicted: a breakthrough or a pullback.
(1) Drop back again
If it drops below around $96,200, then it could form a double top, which would suggest a further pullback.
(2) Firmly stabilize
If we can firmly stabilize today and break through this line to form a higher high, then this is a very good entry point, and the next target is $99,000.
Bitcoin continues to hover in the oscillation range. Currently, this position will continue to grind, and it is in the B wave rebound; the market still needs to undergo a process of rising and falling to build a bottom, and I insist that there will still be a wave of C wave decline.
We need to see how this triangle will close next.
Currently, there are no conditions for shorting. The larger trend is very clear; it is bullish. The first trading day has shown strong upward momentum, providing a good start. Moreover, if it drops, the next range is also very clear, which is within this range. There are two lines in this range that can be considered as buy zones.
(1) Near $94,600: the previous small double bottom structure's neckline.
(2) Between $91,600 and $93,000: the lower edge of the square box.
Let's look at some on-chain data to corroborate our analysis.
(1) Bitcoin's long and short positions
The long and short positions of Bitcoin are relatively balanced. There are slightly more longs, so there exists the possibility of a final cleanup of positions before another drop. After the cleanup, there might be a spike. If a cleanup occurs, a spike followed by a rapid rebound may happen, so we need to place a limit order here.
(2) USDC, USDT supply
In the past 24 hours, the supply of USDT has decreased by 190 million, but the supply of USDC has surged by 750 million. The combined supply of USDC and USDT has increased by 560 million. The marginal improvement in liquidity provides the necessary conditions for the rise of the crypto market.
In summary, Bitcoin has only one last drop left, and everyone should be prepared to strike with the bullets in hand at the key positions I mentioned. The adjustment period is expected to be from January 20 to 27, during which the market will be filled with panic. A new round of upward opportunities may arise in early February, building momentum for future surges. During this time, everyone needs to stay calm and manage their positions well, as wash trading and volatile trends will be the norm.
Speaking of altcoins, there have been no hotspots in the market recently, and funds are flowing toward popular sectors like on-chain AI. As the market returns, these short-term funds may flow out, but this does not mean that the prospects of these projects are bleak. On the contrary, they remain strong contenders, and it is crucial to grasp the rhythm when we swap positions.
Overall, the current market situation is changing rapidly. Staying sharp and seizing the last opportunity may allow one to gain a foothold in the upcoming fluctuations. Remember to keep an eye on market dynamics and adjust strategies in time. Let's ride the waves together in this magnificent market!
