Bitcoin's recent parabolic rally is being challenged as several macroeconomic factors impact this cryptocurrency. According to Bravo Research's latest macro report titled 'Is the Collapse of Bitcoin in 2025 Beginning?' published on December 31, Bitcoin may face new hurdles in early 2025.

ETF Cash Outflows and Weak Stock Market Put Pressure on BTC

Currently trading below $100,000, Bitcoin is under pressure from record outflows from the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and poor performance in the stock market. Additionally, the increasingly hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has diminished optimism around Bitcoin’s bull market.

Bravo Research warns that Bitcoin may 'catch up with the weakness of stocks' in the coming months. The divergence between Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and the S&P 500 has been highlighted, with the report comparing market dynamics from December 2024 with previous trends.

This is the opposite of the setup in September 2024, when stocks reached new highs while Bitcoin struggled. At that time, Bitcoin eventually caught up with the strength of stocks. Now, we may see Bitcoin catching up with the weakness of stocks,” the report notes.

Despite the parabolic rally, analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price may decline before continuing its upward momentum. Bravo Research identifies $80,000 as a potential 'buy the dip' level for the next phase of the bull market.

The Flow of Bitcoin ETFs: A Double-Edged Sword

The report also highlights the role of Bitcoin ETFs in influencing price volatility. Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 1.15 million BTC, with an average daily accumulation rate of 3,000 BTC. At this pace, researchers estimate that Bitcoin could increase by another 50% in just 50 days.

However, Bravo Research warns that even a slight slowdown in ETF demand could trigger a price drop. This was illustrated in March 2024, when Bitcoin's price fell by 30%, even as ETFs continued to buy.

Therefore, March 2024 is a great time to sell, although Bitcoin ETFs are still accumulating,” the report points out.

While ETF cash flow remains the main driver of demand, the report emphasizes that BTC/USD does not always align with ETF buying patterns, making a correction possible.


2025 Outlook

As 2025 unfolds, Bitcoin's performance may still be linked to macroeconomic trends, ETF momentum, and its relationship with traditional markets. While Bravo Research considers $80,000 a critical level for long-term accumulation, the short-term outlook remains uncertain as Bitcoin navigates a parabolic phase and the broader economic environment.

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