At present, Bitcoin is greatly affected by the US stock market, so most of the time when discussing Bitcoin trends, we are actually discussing the trends of the US stock market and the macro trend in the past 25 years. The two major factors that affect Bitcoin prices are Trump's policies and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The expectations of Trump's coming to power have been fulfilled. Next, we have to see the specific policies implemented after he took office on January 20 (what specific policies support encryption and when they will be implemented are currently unpredictable). So we can only discuss the impact of the expectation of interest rate cuts on the market.
So how does it specifically affect the market of big cakes?
It's particularly important to note the timing of the first interest rate cut. The expectations from Fed Watch have recently fluctuated between the months of March, May, and June. If you recall, the market peaked in March 2024 partly because macro expectations for an interest rate cut were pushed from May and June directly to September, prompting both Bitcoin and altcoin traders to start selling off; they couldn't wait that long.
Significant changes in macro expectations led to a market turning point. In fact, the same occurred on December 18 last year, when the dot plot and speeches following the Federal Reserve meeting directly pushed the first interest rate cut expectation to June. For altcoin traders and Bitcoin traders, the situation resembles the macro environment of March 2024 (when the first interest rate cut expectation was delayed by six months). This explains why altcoins dropped 30% and Bitcoin fell 10% after the Federal Reserve meeting on the 18th.
In the first half of the year, I think this line of thinking will suffice. As for the second half of 2025, we will discuss that later. Unless the American economy collapses, it’s highly likely that the market will peak in the fourth quarter.
I don't think it will replicate the 2017 or 2021 scenarios, mainly due to the different macro environment. As for the peak price, I don't see it reaching as high as 200,000; I still maintain the view since 2023 that a range between 110,000 to 150,000 is more reasonable. Whether it reaches this range in the first half or the second half of the year, I will withdraw most of my positions. If other major negative factors delay it above 110,000, we will discuss that later; here, I'm just sharing thoughts, not making wishes.
Buying the dip on three altcoins with a potential 100-fold increase! 1.FET
The current price of Fetch.ai is $1.40, having risen by 12.38% in the past 24 hours. Its trading activity shows a relatively moderate level of liquidity, with a trading volume to market capitalization ratio of 0.0948.
The token's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.08. RSI is a tool that assesses whether an asset is overbought or oversold. The sentiment indicator points to a bearish outlook, indicating that people are cautious about a significant price increase soon.
However, the Fear and Greed Index is currently at 70, indicating an increase in market confidence and interest. Additionally, Fetch.ai's 30-day price volatility, which measures the extent of price fluctuations, is currently at 18%.
This level of volatility is relatively low, indicating that prices have remained stable over the past month. According to current forecasts, by February 2025, Fetch.ai's price could rise by 12.05%, reaching approximately $1.58.
2.CRV
Curve DAO Token (CRV) consolidates its foundational position in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, demonstrating continuous growth and innovation. The current price of CRV is $1.02, having risen by 17.27% in the past 24 hours.
Throughout 2024, Curve Finance expanded the functionality of its platform, solidifying its role as a critical DeFi infrastructure. Strategic partnerships with institutional participants enhanced trust in the platform's technology and facilitated the adoption of various financial applications. This highlights Curve's adaptability and innovation, laying the groundwork for the future development of decentralized finance.
The connection of CRV's Web3 wallet further enhances its accessibility and inclusivity. The ratio of trading volume to market capitalization is 29.32%, and market confidence appears to be strong. The steady growth of Curve DAO Token makes it an important player in the DeFi ecosystem, providing potential opportunities for investors.
3.FTM
Fantom has recently shown significant gains, reporting at $0.8331, with a 24-hour increase of 22.30%, a market capitalization of $2.33 billion, an increase of 22.19%, and a 24-hour trading volume of $596.55 million, with a gain of 115.73%.
The current price is above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $0.757978, exceeding this benchmark by 8.46%. This indicates strong market momentum and optimistic sentiment.
Fantom's market capitalization provides high liquidity, making it easier for investors to trade. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price trends, is at 57.62. This value indicates that the cryptocurrency is in a neutral state, with no clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting it may consolidate soon.
By February 2025, prices are expected to slightly rise to $0.818247. According to Coincodex, Fantom's projected trading range is between $0.639182 and $2.73, with an average estimated price of $1.319182. Based on the current value, this could imply a potential investment return of 219.25%.
In January 2025, Fantom was renamed Sonic, completing a 1:1 token swap through Binance. This process aims to maintain user trust and simplify the transition without altering the core value or function of the token. The name change reflects Fantom's efforts to stay relevant and appealing in the highly competitive cryptocurrency market.
