Let's talk about the US dollar index today, because it has always been closely related to the US stock market and the bitcoin circle. Although the US stock market and the bitcoin circle look good for the time being, the US dollar index has quietly rushed to more than 109, and it is only one step away from breaking through 110.
Bingtang vaguely remembers that the highest US dollar index in 2022 was 115. Although it is not yet a full bear market, it is obvious that the market's risk appetite is declining.
Bingtang has said several times before that the market in 2025 can only take one step at a time, especially in the first quarter. Perhaps because of the emotional effect of the power transfer, the market can still take a breath. But once it enters the second quarter, it depends on Trump's support for the big cake.
At present, the retracement of the big cake from 99964 to 91530 can be confirmed to have ended in the short term. If it rebounds to the range of 99k to 102k next, the decline since 108k will be officially over.
In addition, the market of the cottage still depends on the leadership of the big cake, such as SOL or ETH. After all, Bitcoin is the leader and is in the first half of this round of market. If we block all external interference factors and look at it purely from the perspective of emotions and human nature, the second half of the market has not yet begun. Without enough emotions, the copycat bull market will never come.
Although Bitcoin prices have risen a lot in the past two days, the trading volume has not kept up. The turnover rate is still declining significantly, which also shows that the market liquidity has not improved. This is also within Bingtang's expectations. Anyway, we have to wait until next week to see a clearer direction.
