Author: Alex O'Donnell, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Bai Shui, Golden Finance
VanEck research director Matthew Sigel stated that this year, the chances of the Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being listed in the U.S. are even higher than the optimistic predictions from popular prediction markets.
On January 1, the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated that the probability of the U.S. Solana ETF being listed in 2025 is about 77%. In an article on platform X, Sigel described Polymarket's prediction as 'undervalued.'
Sigel's optimism reflects the industry's expectations that more cryptocurrency ETFs will be listed in the U.S. after President Donald Trump's victory in the November election. The pro-crypto Trump has expressed his desire to make the U.S. the 'crypto capital of the world.'
The way prediction markets work is that they allow users to trade contracts related to specific events, with prices dynamically fluctuating based on expected outcomes. According to Polymarket's website data, as of January 2, its expected probability of ETF listing has risen to about 84%.
The listing prospects are good
In June, VanEck and its competitor asset management firm 21Shares sought permission from U.S. regulators to list a spot Solana ETF.
Reportedly, in August, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission questioned the asset management company's plans due to concerns that SOL is a security rather than a commodity.
BTC and ETF are the only two cryptocurrency ETFs approved for trading on U.S. exchanges, using an atypical 'grantor trust' structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. The issuer stated that success may depend on whether the proposed Solana ETF can meet a similar structure.
Industry analysts believe that Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened the green light for more than six proposed cryptocurrency ETFs waiting for regulatory approval to be listed in the U.S.
Reportedly, in November last year, shortly after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Sigel stated that the likelihood of the U.S. approving the SOL ETF in 2025 is now 'extremely high.'
The prediction platform's view on the cryptocurrency market
According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, with trading volume close to $2 billion just in December.
During the November U.S. elections, the prediction platform was more accurate than traditional polls, not only predicting Trump's victory but also forecasting his party's sweep of the House and Senate.
Predictors are betting that 2025 will be a stellar year for the cryptocurrency market, with BTC and ETH reaching all-time highs and several new cryptocurrency ETFs being listed in the U.S.
