On-chain data analysis reveals potential start signals for the alt season

Recently, on-chain data analyst Murphy proposed the possibility of starting the alt season by studying the scissors gap between the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges and the dollar value of BTC withdrawals. First, the capital overflow condition is the key: when the inflow of stablecoins is greater than the withdrawal of BTC, funds are likely to flow to altcoins, forming a precondition for starting. Data shows that the theoretical overflow value is the largest during 2023.10-2024.3 and 2024.11-2024.12.

Second, capital inflows of mainstream assets are a sign of high market sentiment. The net capital inflows of BTC, ETH and stablecoins indicate an increase in market risk appetite, which is particularly evident during 2023.10-2024.8 and 2024.10-2024.12.

Finally, the positive momentum of the altcoin market value is one of the start signals. When the 7D SMA valuation of an altcoin exceeds the 30D SMA, liquidity tilts towards the altcoin, indicating a positive growth in market value. This phenomenon occurred during October 2023-April 2024 and November 2024-December 2024.

At present, although condition 2 has been met, conditions 1 and 3 still need to be observed. Fund liquidity is still concentrated in mainstream assets, and the cottage season may require patience. This article is for research and exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.