Let's get back to work, friends, and of course, we'll start with BTC. Briefly for those who are too lazy during the holidays - we expect a correction tomorrow and possibly the day after, but not significant. And afterwards, the continuation of growth.
Today's day was marked by the asset's return to a sustainable uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe.
Thus, only two basic correction targets have been worked out for BTC, $93,633 and $91,958. The third target $90,283 has not been worked out. The low is set at $91,530.
Not only BTC has returned to the uptrend, but also ETH. BUT both assets are currently showing the second of three potential high points on this timeframe. So, we expect a rollback in the market on January 3. To confidently maintain the uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe, #BTC should not close the candle below $93,464, and #ETH below - $3,349.
So far, in its rise, the price of BTC has encountered a significant level at $97,553, or rather, in the significant range of $97,553-$98,433. The expected rollback is down to the significant level of $95,665. Moreover, the EMA 50 and 200 of the 4-hour timeframe are nearby now. It is important to close above these moving averages.
If growth is maintained, the targets for a sustainable uptrend for BTC right now are:
- Basic:
-- $97,887 (it has approached closely),
-- $99,151.
- Additional:
-- $99,958,
-- $101,194,
-- $108,037.
There are no other targets, as the decline since December 17 has affected, and on December 31, the price transitioned into a sustainable downtrend on the daily timeframe.
Secondly - part of the contradiction that brings the most uncertainty. Our indicator works well with the signals of sustainable trends for BTC on both the 4-hour and daily timeframes. Currently, there are opposite sustainable trends on them, and one of them must be broken.
Several signals that will help determine the winning trend:
- The confirmation of a sustainable downtrend on the daily timeframe will be confirmed by:
-- transition to a sustainable downtrend on the hourly and, even more so, 2-hour timeframe,
-- if the price closes below $93,464 with the body of the 4-hour candle.
- The confirmation of a sustainable uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe will be:
-- transition to a sustainable uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe,
-- if the price closes with the body of the daily candle above $100,615.
So far, everything looks bullish, and the question is how strong the correction on the 4-hour timeframe will be. Our opinion - not strong. And a return above $100,000 is a priority.
From bullish signals in recent times:
- Finally, the descending trend line from December 17 has been confidently broken.
- On the daily timeframe, the initiative is in the hands of the bulls - for the first time since December 26, the candlestick structure of the price of #BTC is upward. The fact of an early breakdown still needs to be confirmed by the closing of the daily candle, but so far everything is heading in that direction.
- On the 2-day timeframe, the reversal signals for growth are being worked out, which we warned about on December 31. Reversal signals are also being confirmed on the 12-hour timeframe, which we have mentioned many times since last week.
Remember the 2023 BTC price fractal. It seems illogical to go up without a dip below $90,000. But we are in a bull run, ignoring the 'wants' of bears and those wanting to buy lower is normal.
We wrote on December 31 that:
- January 1-3 is the reversal zone of the price volatility index of #BTC.
- January 2-4 - days when BTC may still catch a low before the rise.
The index remains in the reversal zone until it has reversed. When it reverses, impulse movements for BTC will begin at that moment. The growth of the index allows for 'chopping' in both directions. BUT if the price manages to break above $101,194 - considering the reversal index, the asset price can make a quick +20-30%. The high of the emerging impulse will likely be set for BTC in April-June.
ps: pay attention to how the trend line from the highs of 2021 worked as support during the recent correction (screenshot with the dotted trend line and highlighted touches). It consistently reinforces its importance.