Panel 1: Summary of major events in 2024
Question 1:
Bitcoin has broken through the $100,000 mark, the MEME sector has exploded, and the crypto market has welcomed a large number of new investors. In 2024, multiple tracks will see a general rise. Can the guests here help us review and analyze the major events in the crypto circle in 2024, as well as their impact on the market and the reasons behind them from the perspective of the main focus track?
4E PR Manager Ann
At the beginning of the year, the US SEC approved the listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs, making investing in Bitcoin as convenient and compliant as buying US stocks, and the continuous inflow of funds has driven this round of BTC bull market. At the end of the year, Trump won the election, and his crypto-friendly stance pushed Bitcoin to the $100,000 mark.
amber.ac Head of Accelerator Yukun Hao
In 2024, Bitcoin is the industry's largest beta, and everyone has truly experienced the benefits brought by BTC. At the same time, the emergence of AI technology has brought disruptive innovation to the era, and the integration of Crypto and AI has made breakthrough progress this year. In addition, the era's ideology has shifted to sovereign individuals, and the underlying logic has changed, which will bring new opportunities to the industry.
Uweb Co-founder Romeo
In 2024, the source of funds will change, and the operations of listed companies such as MicroStrategy will have an important impact on the market. The new US accounting standards allow listed companies to include the fair value of crypto assets in their balance sheets, which will attract more listed companies to participate and is expected to bring greater miracles to the market in 2025.
Question 2:
The increasing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class has also played a positive role in promoting the legalization and mainstreaming of the entire crypto industry. What is the significance of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 for the Bitcoin market and the entire crypto industry? Can you boldly predict which targets may be included in the spot ETF list in 25 years?
4E PR Manager Ann
The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has opened up the institutional bull market, driving up the price of the crypto market and paving the way for other cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream market. It is expected that ETFs for cryptocurrencies such as Solana and XRP will be approved in 2025.
Waterdrip Capital Investor Elaine
The approval of Ethereum and Bitcoin spot ETFs has increased the market's acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Solana's ETF is likely to be approved due to the deep involvement of Wall Street capital. In addition, some of Grayscale Trust's targets such as Ripple (XRP) and ADA are also attracting attention. There is also the possibility that projects like Uni, if they solve related problems, will also be included in the ETF list because they have a business model that Wall Street can understand.
Youbi Capital Investor Jims
The approval of Bitcoin ETF has more guiding significance than substantive significance. It has opened the door for institutions to buy Bitcoin and increased the attention of assets. In the future, more institutions may pay attention to blockchain industry technology. At the same time, the index concept is also worth paying attention to, which can package some small currencies into better statistical targets.
Question 3:
The 2024 US election will accelerate the entry of cryptocurrencies into the national discourse system. Trump will take office next year. What impact will this have on the market trend? What measures may be introduced in terms of market regulatory policies? What will the macroeconomic situation of the world be like next year, and how will this affect the crypto market?
Waterdrip Capital Investor Elaine
After Trump's victory, his stance on cryptocurrencies may make Bitcoin a national strategic currency reserve, which will attract attention from countries around the world and push Bitcoin prices up further. In the future, Bitcoin is expected to be comparable to gold, and its valuation may reach 1 million U.S. dollars.
amber.ac Head of Accelerator Yukun Hao
Prices are affected by the capital chain, so it is important to pay attention to the underlying liquidity indicators. Market sentiment also has a great impact on prices. Regulatory compliance is an important direction for the development of the industry. With the improvement of supervision, the industry will move to a new level, and it is only a matter of time before asset prices react.
Youbi Capital Investor Jims
Although the market trend is difficult to predict, it should be upward overall, because the promotion of ETFs and other factors indicate that the market still has opportunities to rise, but it is difficult to determine the specific top due to various factors. In terms of supervision, relevant regulations may be revised after Trump takes office. For example, it is worth noting that companies include Bitcoin in financial reserves. Some new policies may appear in the future, such as clearer dividends and encryption to solve financing difficulties. In terms of macroeconomics, the trend of US stocks is difficult to predict, but there is a possibility of market adjustment, and wealth transfer may become a trend rather than simply wealth increase.
Panel 2: 2025 Market and Trend Analysis
Question 1:
The bull-bear market situation has always been the most concerned issue for investors. I would like to ask the guests, which stage of the bull market are we currently in? What will the market be like before and after Trump's official inauguration on January 20, 2025, the first key time node that is coming soon? How long will the bull market last? How much do you see in Bitcoin during this bull peak?
Data Analyst Crypto_Painter
The market does not need to clearly divide the bull market into bear markets, but should focus on the current situation. The current changes in the distribution of chips show that market volatility may intensify, and there may be large fluctuations in the market, which may eventually fluctuate upward or downward, and the fluctuation range will increase.
Independent Trader Miki Trader
Judging from the weekly MA60 moving average of trading tools, the current Bitcoin market is in an optimistic state, and the price has not fallen below the moving average, indicating that the macro cycle is healthy. However, the Bitcoin market is different from previous years and is more stable, similar to the trend of gold or Nasdaq. It may fluctuate in a wide range for most of the future, but the long-term trend is still upward.
Independent researcher Dale
From the perspective of the main upward trend, it is currently fluctuating at a high level. The market will rise after the election, and the real climax will be when Trump takes office on January 20, which is Q1 next year. Historical data shows that risk assets usually have good expectations within 100 days after the inauguration of the US president, but after March next year, we need to pay attention to the US economic situation and unemployment rate. From a macro perspective, the current market is similar to the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, but the election has been added, which makes the market sentiment FOMO. Then if there is a recession starting from Q2, the black swan, which is similar to the 312 incident in 2020, may be a bargain hunting opportunity.
Question 2:
At present, macro risk is still the biggest uncertainty in the market. Affected by the rebound in inflation and the imposition of tariffs, the market generally lowered the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts next year, and even some Wall Street institutions have given predictions of interest rate hikes starting in the second half of next year. Now I would like to ask the two guests, what is your judgment on the macro level? How will this affect the crypto market? In this case, what should investors pay attention to in trading? What trading strategies can be implemented?
Dr Hugo, blockchain lecturer at the world's top 10 universities and cryptocurrency OG
I personally think that the possibility of interest rate hike is not high, but the rate of interest rate cut may slow down. The macroeconomic impact on the crypto market is diverse. Bitcoin is affected by macro factors because most of its players are large financial institutions, and Trump may implement policies such as Bitcoin strategic reserves. In the long run, Bitcoin has a large room for growth. Investors can consider fixed investment or long-term holding.
Cryptography researcher Claude
The probability of interest rate hike is not high, and the market has expected interest rate cuts. Stopping QT (quantitative tightening) has a greater impact on market liquidity. If QT is stopped in the first quarter or the first half of 2025, it will be a positive. In addition, interest rate cuts may prompt more funds to enter the crypto market, and investors can pay attention to the flow of funds. In terms of trading strategies, you can pay attention to leading assets and adjust strategies according to market hotspots and sentiments. At the same time, embracing Bitcoin is still a relatively stable choice.
Question 3:
With Trump taking office as president and the gradual clarification of US regulation on encryption, from the perspective of US policy, which sectors do you think will benefit the most? What are the reasons? Which projects do you think are promising in these sectors?
Independent Trader Miki Trader
Pay attention to the compliance sector, including projects listed on US exchanges and projects that funds can participate in; the RWA sector, as the market turns to compliance, more RWA assets may flow in; the MEME sector, which will become a larger framework with more sub-sectors and opportunities, you can look for opportunities in the primary market, pay attention to hot spots in the secondary market and projects with good liquidity, pay attention to the continuity of hot spots, and adjust trading strategies in a timely manner.
Cryptography researcher Claude
Trump's policies are mainly beneficial to the crypto market and companies that comply with US regulations. You can pay attention to listing opportunities on US compliant exchanges, such as Circle; pay attention to the Grayscale sector and related assets; at the same time, the real estate and energy sectors in RWA may have opportunities during the interest rate cut cycle, but it should be noted that related projects are affected by real asset companies and need to pay attention to compliance issues.
Question 4:
What technological innovations do you think will emerge in the blockchain industry in 2025? What related Alphas will be generated? Which tracks and projects can investors focus on?
Data Analyst Crypto_Painter
We are optimistic about the direction of combining blockchain with real-world life applications, such as the track of combining traditional finance with blockchain finance. In each round of bull market, blockchain technology innovation is mostly to provide financing convenience and channels. Investors can pay attention to projects that can attract more liquidity, and at the same time, they should be aware that popular projects in the previous round of bull market may no longer be popular in the next round.
Dr Hugo, blockchain lecturer at the world's top 10 universities and cryptocurrency OG
Technological innovation is difficult to predict, but there will be new ways to play in business models. AI agent is a hot topic at present, and it will continue until at least the first quarter of 2025. In the long run, the combination of RWA and finance is worth paying attention to. At the same time, there will be new ways to play in the defi field, and its essence is value transfer, such as Hyperliquid and other projects and centralized investment strategy platforms.
Independent Researcher Dale
Pay attention to the dominance of US capital and the influence of capital sentiment on the crypto market speculation. At the same time, keep learning, pay attention to new opportunities, and do not underestimate the emerging tracks, because new changes in the market may bring opportunities for wealth growth.
Panel 3: 2025 Crypto Project Development and Thinking
Question 1:
In the existing public chain landscape, who is most likely to stand out in the public chain boom in 2025? What is the reason? For example, technical advantages, application innovation, embracing the boom or Meme community friendliness, etc., please ask the guests to talk about it.
Bouncebit COO YC
Technological innovation is crucial. Projects need to be favored by big capital and conform to the main theme of the industry cycle. You can pay attention to projects with strong consensus such as movement. The investment situation of leading companies is a good reference indicator.
APOLLO Lead Peter
The project has gone through the test of cycles, the community is stronger, and we are confident about its development in 2025. The memecoin explosion has attracted attention. Next year, new technologies will be introduced to improve blockchain performance, such as increasing transaction volume, reducing latency, and enhancing network stability and scalability. At the same time, there are opportunities to explore the liquidity and returns of Bitcoin on the chain. Apollo will make arrangements in this regard and cooperate with institutions to promote the development of Bitcoin on the chain. It is expected that the application of Bitcoin on the chain will be more extensive next year.
Star AI Allen
The AI agent track is valued by mainstream blockchains. It can create more AI assets for C-end users on the blockchain, bring more users and interactions, and enhance the value of underlying tokens, such as digital humans, agent transactions and other application scenarios. In 2025, the actions of many large outsourcing companies in the field of AI will bring continuous impact and opportunities to this track. The project itself is also exploring the combination of AI agents and games. The combination of AI and DeFi can enable two-way empowerment, and the development of related tracks is optimistic.
Question 2:
As a battleground for stablecoins, what will be the development trend in 2025? Will there be any dark horses? The development paths of stablecoins vary in Asia, Europe, and America. So how can the stablecoin market in different regions meet regulatory requirements and ensure its competitiveness in 2025? What will be the future development of compliant stablecoins? Are there any competitive application scenarios for compliant stablecoins?
Curve Contributor Haowi.eth
From a relative perspective, the survival space of globalized, centralized stablecoins with assets placed in traditional financial infrastructure will shrink relative to decentralized stablecoins due to stricter supervision in various countries. The application scenarios of compliant stablecoins are limited, such as the limited liquidity of USDC outside Coinbase, while decentralized stablecoins still have advantages from the perspective of on-chain applications and settlements. We are optimistic about decentralized stablecoins in the long term.
StakeStone Core Contributor BlueWharf
There are different vertical categories in the stablecoin track. For stablecoins in the strict sense (such as USDT, USDC, etc.), the issuance volume and liquidity are the key. Strengthened supervision requires new entrants to embrace supervision, but they face fierce competition. Interest-bearing stablecoins (such as USDE, etc.) are essentially asset management services. The track is developing rapidly, and the underlying assets may expand in the future. The competitive advantage lies in asset management capabilities.
Question 3:
With the changes in the regulatory environment and the accelerated integration of traditional finance and crypto assets, what do you think about the future development of innovative financial products such as DeFi, BTCFi, and PayFi? Which of the above tracks do you think is more promising? As an innovative project in more than one track, what aspects should be paid attention to in the development process? What are the development plans of your project in the above tracks in 2025?
APOLLO Lead Peter
We are optimistic about DeFi and BTCFi related parts. There are opportunities for Bitcoin revenue exploration. More Bitcoin will be put on the chain, and its revenue is transparent and comes from real business. In 2025, Apollo will focus on improving the security and stability of Bitcoin on the chain, providing users with liquidity revenue solutions through custody or user autonomous operations, and cooperating with other projects to improve on-chain transactions and project performance, paying attention to the overall flow direction of Bitcoin and the development of Solana.
Bouncebit COO YC
Focus on the RWA track, combine on-chain and off-chain assets to innovate products, such as connecting U.S. debt products to quantitative asset management products, provide users with arbitrage returns, and support the entry of large funds. There is no similar direction in the market yet. We believe this is a good opportunity. The project will be deployed in BTCFi and PayFi, and it is expected to launch blockbuster products next year to solve the existing industry pain points and improve asset liquidity. It will focus on Bitcoin in the early stage and may expand to other leading blockchains in the later stage. It will also incubate related projects based on customer needs, which is expected to bring new changes to the industry.
StakeStone Core Contributor BlueWharf
BTCFi mainly includes three meaningful aspects: BTC on-chain, BTC analysis and BTC on-chain lending, but the limited liquidity of BTC on-chain affects the development of related DeFi. In terms of PayFi, the rise of high-performance public chains has brought opportunities for payment business upgrades. StakeStone will have products next year to improve the performance and friendliness of payment business, and is optimistic about the development of the payment field next year.
Star AI Allen
We are optimistic about the DeFi track. AI can improve the efficiency of asset issuance and make asset issuance more convenient and diverse, but AI assets currently have value fluctuations. DeFi needs more standard asset types, and AI can help convert them into mortgage agreements, etc., to enhance asset liquidity and durability, and achieve two-way empowerment. Regarding BTCFi, we have seen the TGBTC project officially released by TG, but its development still needs to further observe the micro-innovations and gameplay of other on-chain DeFi protocols.
