On December 29, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a very popular trader in the cryptocurrency community, released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on X. The prediction stated that Ethereum will become the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.
Eugene first mentioned three reasons for being bullish on Ethereum: technical trends; Trump’s favor (especially WLF’s massive purchase of the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. Then he issued another article emphasizing that since Trump was elected, the capital inflow situation of Ethereum spot ETF has undergone a 180-degree change.
ETF fund trends: Is Ethereum more optimistic?
Eugene is not exaggerating. SoSoValue data shows that since Trump won the election on November 6, the capital inflow of the spot Ethereum ETF has grown significantly, and the growth trend during the same period has even exceeded that of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
Image source: SoSoValue
Image source: SoSoValue
Entering late December, this trend has become more obvious.
SoSoValue data shows that on last week’s trading day (December 23 to December 27, Eastern Time), the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of US$349 million in a single week last week; while the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of US$388 million during the same period - This obvious difference in capital movements may indicate better expectations for the future of Ethereum.
As of the time of publication, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not yet been fully announced, but according to Lookonchain’s on-chain monitoring, ten U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 Bitcoins ($275.59 million) yesterday; nine Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 Bitcoins ($275.59 million); With a net inflow of 16,359 Ethereum coins ($54.33 million), the trend seems to remain unchanged.
Trump concept family bucket
In addition to ETF liquidity data, another reason supporting Ethereum expectations is the continued position building of the Trump family project WLFI.
In the past period of time, WLFI has successively purchased multiple Ethereum ecological tokens such as $AAVE, $LINK, $ENA, $ONDO, etc., but the project’s current largest holdings are still Ethereum.
Source: Odaily Planet Daily
Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the sentence "The president is already on the bus, what are you still hesitating about" still has a very FOMO effect.
Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?
Coinglass data shows that in the first quarter of the new year after the historical US election and Bitcoin halving cycle, Ethereum performed best, especially in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, when Ethereum rose 518% respectively. and 161%, even exceeding Bitcoin’s return rate in these two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).
If history repeats itself, Ethereum may see a significant rise in Q1 next year.
Source: Odaily Planet Daily
Potential beta options
If Ethereum can really rise as expected, some Ethereum ecological tokens may become Beta options with higher risk/return, such as:
Trump concept coin combination: $AAVE, $LINK, $ENA, $ONDO;
Grayscale Top 20 choices: $LINK, $UNI, AAVE, $ENA, $OP, $LDO;
Potential benefits expected from ETF staking: $LDO, $EIGEN, $RPL, $SSV;
Ethereum ecological head AI concepts: $VIRTUAL, $GAME, $AIXBT;
Odaily Note: The above tokens are only a list of specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.
Opposition view
Although many well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, are openly bullish on Ethereum, there are also voices that are pessimistic about the future performance of Ethereum.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario in this regard. He expected that Ethereum would continue to underperform and would not be able to hit a record high in the overall "hawkish" economic environment in 2025: "We expect Ethereum in 2025 to The currency outlook is more conservative, and the initial hawkish policy may be tested by weakening liquidity tailwinds."
During this period of violent market fluctuations, the predictions given by all parties are only "one-sided conclusions" based on the conditions and indicators they are concerned about. No one can predict the future. Please remember DYOR before taking action.
This article is reproduced with permission from: (Shenchao TechFlow)
Original author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
"Second brother is going to get a raise?" Ethereum ETF capital flow indicates the future script, will it finally take over Bitcoin? 』This article was first published in "CryptoCity"
