Ethereum (ETH) has recently experienced price movements characterized by 'consolidation and fluctuation.' After the previous volatility, it is currently fluctuating within the range of 3350 to 3400. Overall, market sentiment remains bearish, and there are no clear reversal signals yet. Next, we can analyze from the perspective of three technical indicators to help everyone better understand the current market trend.
From the perspective of the three indicators:
1. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) analysis:
MACD assesses the strength of market trends by calculating the difference between short-term and long-term price averages. Based on the MACD of different cycles, we can see the following signals:
4-hour cycle: The current MACD fast line (DIF) and slow line (DEA) remain below the zero axis, and the two lines are gradually approaching. However, this proximity may form a golden cross (i.e., the fast line crossing above the slow line), which is typically a signal that prices may rebound in the short term, but it should be noted that the formation of the golden cross has not yet been confirmed, so caution is still required.
Daily cycle: The MACD on the daily chart remains below the zero line, indicating a clear bearish trend. Although the downward momentum of the MACD has weakened, it is still difficult to determine if the market trend has reversed without a clear reversal signal. Therefore, the MACD on the daily chart continues to suggest market weakness, and bearish pressure persists.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) analysis:
RSI is a tool used to measure the speed and magnitude of price changes, used to determine whether the market is overbought or oversold. The RSI value in different ranges can reflect different market sentiments.
4-hour cycle: The RSI value is 52.81, close to the neutral line of 50, indicating that the market does not exhibit obvious overbought or oversold sentiments, and sentiment is relatively cautious, with no strong buy or sell signals apparent.
Daily cycle: The RSI value is 45.14, slightly below the neutral level of 50, indicating that market sentiment is relatively bearish, with cautious sentiment among investors. The current RSI level does not show any obvious signs of being oversold, and prices may continue to be under pressure.
3. Moving Average analysis:
Moving averages are one of the most commonly used tools in technical analysis, displaying the direction and strength of trends by calculating the average price over a certain time frame.
4-hour cycle: The current EMA20 (20-period Exponential Moving Average) is still below the EMA60 (60-period) and EMA120 (120-period) moving averages, forming a bearish arrangement. A bearish arrangement means that market prices are still under downward pressure, and there are no obvious rebound signals in the short term, so caution is needed for potential price declines.
Daily cycle: The gap between the 20-period EMA and the 60-period EMA is significant, and the price is below the 20-period EMA and above the 60-period EMA. This arrangement indicates that short-term prices may be under pressure from the 20-period EMA. Although the 20-period moving average exerts some pressure on prices, the relative position of the moving averages indicates that the long-term market trend remains bearish.
4. Volume analysis:
Volume is a key indicator of market activity, usually used to verify whether price movements have sustainability.
Recent increase in trading volume: On December 31 and January 1, trading volume clearly increased, indicating a rise in market activity. Especially during this phase of consolidation, the increase in volume may suggest that the market is awaiting a breakout signal.
Volume decline: However, current trading volume has decreased compared to previous days, indicating that the market has entered a wait-and-see period. Investors do not yet have clear confidence in the upcoming market trend, and there may not be significant fluctuations in the short term. At this time, it is advisable to remain patient and wait for clearer signals from the market before making decisions.
Thus, Ethereum's current market state is still in a pullback and consolidation phase. Although the MACD shows a potential golden cross formation in the short term, there is still no clear reversal signal, and the bearish trend remains dominant. The analysis of RSI and moving averages also indicates that market sentiment is still cautious, and there may be continued pressure in the short term.
Therefore, it is recommended to wait for clearer buy signals or reversal signs. For example, entering after the 20-period moving average crosses above the 60 and 120 moving averages.
