In the new year, I wish everyone a Happy New Year!
On the first day of the New Year, the expected correction occurred, which is what I mentioned earlier about a drop at the beginning of the year. In fact, Bitcoin's rise yesterday made me think that the monthly line would close as a bullish line, but it fell just short. The recent trend has basically met my expectations, with a final surge followed by a correction.
From the perspective of candlestick indicators, Bitcoin is currently in a bottoming phase. If it remains stable, it may welcome a good start. However, the trend still appears weak, and caution is needed. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, the current position is attractive.
The current cautious wait-and-see attitude in the market is mainly due to concerns about a second decline. Do you think we've hit the bottom, or will there be another drop? Regardless, the bull market is still on, and the decline is also a great opportunity to enter!
In the new year, in January, I only do low-leverage long positions on ETH, and I don't trade other coins. Altcoins are prone to frequent stop losses, with no bottom to their declines and lack of controllability. In contrast, with Ethereum, even if I long at 3330 and set a stop loss at 3300, I only lose one point, making the risk more controllable. I believe that if Ethereum rises, altcoins must rise, but if Ethereum rises, it doesn't necessarily drive altcoins; many altcoins start to adjust after a few days of rising at the end of the market. Therefore, I plan to invest in batches with 2x leverage in major altcoin leaders by the end of January.
Let's take a look at the news related to Ethereum upgrades:
Tim Beiko, head of the Ethereum Foundation, recently published an article on the outlook for Ethereum in 2025 and upcoming upgrades, highlighting the imminent Prague upgrade. This will be the largest upgrade in Ethereum's history, involving 11 proposals aimed at improving speed, security, and performance.
The Prague upgrade is currently in its fifth testnet phase. It is expected that after completing all testnets, fork testing and mainnet upgrades will commence in early 2024. Based on the current progress, the Prague upgrade is expected to go live in March at the earliest, but it is more likely to be delayed until April.
Ethereum's upgrade cycle usually starts two months in advance, with the main upward wave expected to begin between late January and late February, peaking during the upgrades in March and April. Besides ETH, ecosystem tokens like AAVE, Puffer, and Pepe may also see strong performance.
ETF speculation continues to ferment! Solana futures leveraged ETF has recently made significant progress.
Asset management giant Volatility Shares has submitted relevant applications to the SEC, marking a key step toward entering the spot ETF market. According to the ETF listing process, futures ETFs are usually launched first, followed by spot ETFs. The spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum were also first approved for futures ETFs. The application for Solana's futures ETF is significant and is expected to be approved in the first half of next year, potentially challenging the approval of spot ETFs afterward.
The market is optimistic about Solana's prospects, predicting a 71% probability that its spot ETF will be approved before July next year. If approved, the price of Solana may soar by 20% or more a week before the final review.
At the same time, Polkadot (DOT) has also released its New Year plan. Polkadot founder Gavin Wood announced the launch of Polkadot 3.0 and the JAM protocol, aiming to build a Web3 supercomputer. However, the price performance of DOT is sluggish, mainly due to its 15% annual issuance and lack of destruction strategy.
Investors believe that tokens lacking a destruction mechanism may drag down the performance of the bull market. In contrast, XRP and ADA, due to their lack of issuance mechanism, hold more long-term value.
After reviewing the overall secondary market situation, are you still panicking? Don't forget what Xiaomiao said after the New Year, the funds from FTX repayments will flow into the market, which is another major positive!
Alright, let's continue discussing the event where Elon Musk's avatar change on platform X sparked a wave of excitement yesterday!
I don't know if you've noticed, but since Elon Musk frequently changes his avatar and promotes DOGE and PEPE, it has backfired and only attracted speculators. Every time he shouts for a rise, it immediately falls; people can't predict which avatar he will change to next, nor which meme he will promote. You may take his calls as faith, but he is just treating the crypto world as a game.
Let's talk about another $MET token: Metya has released its New Year wishes and future plans for 2025 on platform X. In the past year, Metya ranked first in both the RootData Social and DePIN popularity charts. Looking ahead to 2025, Metya will deepen innovations in the SocialFi and DePIN tracks, introduce more AI-driven features, optimize the Dating to Earn model, expand global user coverage, promote the popularization of decentralized infrastructure, and help users create more economic value. Meanwhile, Metya will enhance the ecological empowerment of the $MET token, promoting a new chapter of connection and innovation.
Today's article ends here. Currently, we are in a bull market, with winds and clouds stirring; we share passwords every day.
