Dear, do you already hold enough low-priced chips in your hands? Let's quietly wait for the wind to come.

Hello everyone, I am Oupeng. Today is 2025.01.01. Will the first quarter of 2025 see significant gains? Most likely! This is not unfounded; based on the historical performance of Bitcoin after each halving, we have ample reason to be optimistic about the first quarter of 2025.

Let me slowly explain ☕ this starts with the 'golden rule' of Bitcoin halving.

A historical review of Bitcoin halving: the 'second year effect' after halving

Bitcoin halving is an important event in the blockchain network. Whenever Bitcoin's block rewards are halved, it means that the amount of Bitcoin produced every 10 minutes is reduced by half, leading to a decrease in supply in the market. Theoretically, a decrease in supply while demand remains stable or increases should push prices up. Although the direct effects of halving may not manifest immediately, historically, Bitcoin usually has significant performance in the 'second year' after halving, especially in the first quarter.

Reviewing past performances after halving

  1. Performance after the 2012 halving:

    • The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, with block rewards decreasing from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Although the market performed steadily initially, Bitcoin's price began to rise sharply in 2013, breaking through $1,000 in November 2013. In particular, in the first quarter of 2013, Bitcoin rose over 50%.

  2. Performance after the 2016 halving:

    • The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016, with rewards decreasing from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Although the second half of 2016 was relatively stable, Bitcoin's price began to rise rapidly in 2017, particularly in the first quarter of 2017, showing strong upward momentum and ultimately breaking through $20,000 in December.

  3. Performance after the 2020 halving:

    • The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, with block rewards decreasing to 6.25 BTC. Despite the global pandemic affecting market sentiment at the beginning of 2020, Bitcoin's price rose sharply entering 2021, breaking the historical high of $64,000 in April 2021. In the first quarter of 2021, Bitcoin's price surged from about $20,000 to nearly $60,000, an increase of over 100%.

The 'second year effect' after halving: factors behind price increases

From these historical data, we can summarize a rule: After each Bitcoin halving, its price performs very strongly in the second year, especially in the first quarter. So, why does the price of Bitcoin rise significantly in the first quarter of the second year after halving?

  1. Supply decreases, demand increases
    Each halving reduces the supply of Bitcoin in the market. As a scarce asset, Bitcoin's demand has not decreased; on the contrary, demand has gradually increased due to more investors entering the market. The dual effects of reduced supply and increased demand drive up the price of Bitcoin.

  2. Recovery and accumulation of market sentiment
    In the months following a halving, market sentiment is usually in a recovery phase. However, as the market gradually adapts and expects price increases, investor confidence grows, and funds begin to flow in, pushing prices higher. 2021 is a typical example; although the market did not explode in the early stages after the halving, sentiment quickly warmed up entering the first quarter.

  3. Institutional fund inflow
    As Bitcoin is gradually recognized as 'digital gold,' institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin has been increasing. After each halving, the speed of institutional fund inflow usually accelerates, and the inflow of institutional funds in 2021 was an important factor driving Bitcoin's rise.

  4. Conformity of the macroeconomic environment
    The global macroeconomic environment also significantly impacts Bitcoin's price. Especially when the world faces inflationary pressures and loose monetary policies, Bitcoin, as an asset to combat inflation, often attracts more investor attention.

So my view is: In the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin may experience a significant rise.

So, will Bitcoin follow this historical pattern and experience a significant rise in the first quarter of 2025?

  1. The Bitcoin halving in 2024 has become a fact.
    In April 2024, Bitcoin will experience its fourth halving, with block rewards decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, the first quarter of the second year after halving usually sees a price increase, so we have reason to believe that Bitcoin's price may experience a surge in the first quarter of 2025.

  2. Market sentiment recovery
    As the market for Bitcoin and other crypto assets gradually warms up,especially against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, inflation, and financial market turmoil, the demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset may surge again. Especially with the joint push from institutional and retail investors, Bitcoin's price could usher in a new round of increases.

  3. Continued fermentation of the halving effect
    The supply pressure brought about by the Bitcoin halving event may gradually manifest in 2025, especially as the new supply in the market decreases, which is an important price-driving factor for long-term investors.

Therefore, we have reason to believe that Bitcoin may experience a strong surge. This is not only based on the economic principles of reduced supply but also in the context of global economic uncertainty, the demand for Bitcoin as 'digital gold' may continue to rise.

Cherish every deep correction, use less leverage, buy spot, and wait for the wind to come.

BTC, $ETH , $SOL , $BNB .