Author: Zolo, Deep Tide TechFlow.
It seems everyone is filled with anticipation for 2025, due to market reasons and trending topics. Project parties, speculators, KOLs, VCs... everyone is ready to make a big push.
I am also part of it. But I have started to be cautious; when everyone wants to make a big push, how can I avoid being 'caught up' in the push?
Looking back at 2024, I hope that what I engage with and create in 2025 is real and has positive value for the industry.
Real information: Information bubbles are everywhere; what we pursue is not more information, but real information.
Do not place blind faith in a single channel.
This year was the first time I deeply realized this during the U.S. election. If you only look at Polymarket, you would always think Trump is guaranteed to win; the fluctuations in between can catch you off guard.
If you only look at 'certain American party media', you might think Harris still has a chance; but if you switch to Twitter, you'll find it's all about Trump winning.
Information has no right or wrong, but all have narrowness.
Therefore, when we use Twitter to evaluate a project's heat and reputation, we should also look at on-chain data, community discussions, and communicate with others, etc.
Enrich your channels to receive more diverse signals.
Escape the bias of KOLs.
What impressed me most this year was the discussions about ai16z; I coincidentally followed it from the very beginning to now.
There are good and bad aspects. For instance, initially, the founder's unfiltered speech made many worry about their holdings, even high-profile KOLs like Ansem and Him publicly FUD ai16z.
In the capitalization debate over eliza/Eliza, different KOLs hold very different opinions.
Having different opinions is normal, and criticizing a project is also normal, but if all viewpoints stray from logic and become emotional and rigid, they carry bias.
During this period, if you only look at those who are always bullish on ai16z, you will feel that the project's problems are trivial, but of course, you will also need to endure the selling pressure during that time.
Similarly, during this period, if you only follow those KOLs who remain in FUD no matter how ai16z improves, the information you receive will always be negative, which will cause you to miss out on tenfold or even hundredfold returns.
KOLs are neither right nor wrong; each KOL is merely a bubble of information. Their quality varies, but since they are individuals, they inevitably carry their own fixed cognition and even some biases. When researching a project, do not overlook friends who have genuinely delved into it.
Beware of conspiracy groups; your gossip is all 'losing news'.
Many friends have shared on Twitter that over 80% of the 'gossip' they received ended up being losses.
I am the same; it is not that I share 'gossip' with malice, but because we are all part of the play.
You don't know the authenticity of the information (will it be misleading);
Not knowing the validity of the information (where it will pull to);
Not knowing what number you are among those who are also aware of this news (is the buying point low enough);
......
The probability of these messages being 'distorted' is too high.
So much so that these 'gossips' turn into 'losing news' by the time they reach you.
Real users: Reject false data prosperity; traffic is important, but do not become addicted to it.
The industry's traffic has become more deceptive; we need genuine influence.
Whether it's Twitter followers, website traffic, or AMA participation numbers, fake traffic is becoming more prevalent, also supporting many surrounding 'traffic selling' services.
It has a deeper impact on my own work.
The influence of media; traffic is a very important judgment factor. Many people who are unfamiliar with the industry generally judge whether this media is worth collaborating with directly through some third-party tools from the perspective of traffic.
This directly leads to 'buying traffic', attracting 'business', becoming a common phenomenon across any industry.
However, 'bought traffic' cannot bring 'real influence';
The 'business' attracted also cannot bring them 'good effects'.
In this cycle:
Platforms need to buy traffic to make themselves appear influential;
Project parties need attractive traffic to prove that what they are doing is effective;
Different platforms compete with each other, and the cost of buying traffic is gradually increasing;
As the flow increases, the surface effect improves, and the industry enters a false prosperity, with wealth truly transferring to the 'traffic service providers'.
I would call this phenomenon 'TrafficSick'. Once infected, one will sink deeper and deeper.
How to judge real influence?
Try to communicate with real people, interact with different roles in the industry, ask them their views on certain issues, whether they have seen certain content, and what evaluations they have, etc.
This is also the reason I attended many events last year; only by genuinely interacting and communicating with different friends offline did I understand how everyone views us, what everyone is discussing now, what the current atmosphere is in the community, and what kind of content users are truly interested in, etc.
Only real influence and real feedback can lead us into a positive cycle.
Don’t be afraid of low traffic; why not first build an emotional niche community?
In the past, while doing advertising, I was deeply influenced by one perspective:
Everyone's underlying layer must have some commonalities, so no matter what you do, as long as it is 'what genuinely moves you' and 'what you deeply resonate with', somewhere in the world, someone will definitely have the same resonance as you.
Just like listening to music, 'niche music' is always just a relative concept and will always have a market.
From a market perspective, the problem being solved is actually very clear:
1- Are you doing things that genuinely move and resonate with you?
2- Have you spread this thing wide enough?
For Web3, although our market is expanding, the benefit is that our traffic is not very dispersed. You can count where users are, what social software they use, and who your competitors are.
A loyal member must be attracted by some 'extreme concept, idea, attitude,' etc. Once you find them, they will come to you and start to gather, eventually forming a community.
We don’t need many people because these few dozen may be much more effective than tens of thousands. Therefore, we shouldn’t worry about low traffic; instead, we should worry about whether what we are doing can truly attract people.
Real creation: When AI becomes a creative tool for everyone, what kind of content will attract people?
This year, aside from the hype around concepts like AI Agents, AI as a tool has greatly enhanced our productivity. However, a common critique is: this thing feels heavily AI-driven.
Whether you realize it or not, you will gradually find that:
The content you see will become increasingly homogenized; content frameworks and reasoning logic will become more similar; the sources cited in arguments will gradually converge; research-based content will become more prevalent (because it becomes easier to produce).
I know that on certain content platforms, the backend has always been using AI to produce content, expand their database, engage in SEO, and generate traffic revenue.
But users will definitely experience aesthetic fatigue.
So, when AI is commonly regarded as a creative tool, what kind of content will attract people? I think it comes down to two aspects:
1- We should value ideas.
Have your own thoughts on the content produced, breaking the inherent framework and approaching from different angles.
2- We should create new things.
People will always applaud things they have 'not seen before'. Creativity does not follow logic, it is a random combination and also 'unseen'.
We should place more emphasis on creating content rather than organizing content.
Real connections: Time is precious, do not waste it casually.
A long-term and healthy relationship should be mutually beneficial, not one-sided and constantly taking advantage.
Those who do not recognize the value of your labor will continuously seek you to 'do them a favor';
Those who are stingy with others/communities will also not be willing to share matching benefits for your contributions.
When everyone seems ready to make a big push in 2025, I don’t want to be the one who 'only takes' and is unwilling to give.
This year, my dog got seriously ill, and when I spent a lot of time taking care of her, I realized that I had only been seeking emotional value from her.
While satisfying my own emotional needs according to Maslow, I can't even meet her most basic dietary need of eating on time.
Many people's time is very precious this year; don’t be afraid to seek help, but remember not to just take without giving.
Mutually beneficial connections are the only real and effective connections.
Once the arrow is shot, there is no turning back; I think this should be the attitude for doing things this year.
Make heavy bets on recognized matters, do not overly disperse your energy, and do not think that if you do not do well, there will be another opportunity.
The above can be considered my summary of 2024 and my expectations for myself in 2025.
Finally, I would like to thank the partners who chose Deep Tide in 2024; I hope in 2025 we can work hard together and do more interesting and creative things.
To those reading this, I wish you all can gain from what you recognize in 2025, Happy New Year.