Today is December 31, 2024. Tomorrow will be 2025. Here, I wish everyone a Happy New Year, may you all become wealthy in 2025, whether in contracts or spot trading! Yesterday, the US stock market fell slightly again, with NASDAQ down 1.19%, Dow Jones down 0.97%, S&P 500 down 1.07%. Then the cryptocurrency market also responded with a significant drop, with Bitcoin falling to a low of 91500, currently back to 92500. So will it drop below 90000 going forward?
Daily level market analysis: This was actually mentioned in a previous program. From the daily level market perspective, this pullback could potentially reach between 0.236-0.618 (red box area), but I think reaching the 87000-88000 range would be very good, a very cost-effective area. Once it reaches this position, I would add to my position without hesitation.
Currently, it seems that the BTC pullback on the weekly level is sufficient, and on the monthly level, as long as we get through this month, the pullback will also be sufficient. Therefore, January has the potential to push upwards.
Since this is an annual summary, yesterday we saw the top 20 coins with the highest returns for 2024. Let's take a look at them.
1. Virtuals: AI agents, currently the leader, with several agents already having high market caps, such as GAME at 260 million, Luna at 110 million. (Did you catch the 2x 10X AI agent Virtual?)
2. Brett: Dragon 1 meme on Base, analysis of three BASE ecosystem projects Degen & Bertt & AERO, let's see how the BASE ecosystem is doing?
3. Popcat: meme on SOL, analysis of three projects FTN & POPCAT & Orbler
4. Mantra: UAE-compliant DeFi public chain, this was truly unexpected. The technology is average, with little ecosystem and TVL, just hard pulling. Who can you reason with? RWA-compliant public chain - Mantra's potential analysis shows it can surge 40 times.
5. Mog: meme, is the season of altcoins coming? Analysis of three meme projects TURBO & MOG & ERC20 in the 200-300 ranking.
6. Aero: The largest DeFi on Base
7. Turbo: meme
8. Fartcoin: AI-generated meme, is this wave of bull market SHIBA? - Shiro Neko on-chain trading analysis & AI token Fartcoin can still reach new highs?
9. Ai16z: AI agent dragon 2, the booming AI agent cycle brings several AI agent projects & in-depth analysis of AI investment ai16z.
10. Pepe: The largest meme that has risen this round, a 4000% surge MEMEcoin - pepe
11. Dogwifcat: meme
12. Peanut: meme.
13. BGB: platform token.
14. ONDO: US Treasury head RWA, strong backing for the new RWA player - Ondo Finance's hundredfold potential analysis.
15. AIOZ: Streaming media platform that rode the AI concept wave for a while. AI + storage + streaming media platform - Can AIOZ surge 60 times more?
16. Jasmy: Originally a project by a Japanese company for the Internet of Things, but the tokens were long sold out by the founder. Currently, it's a meme project, a zero-value project. Why did Jasmy have a tenfold increase over six months?
17. Sui: A rare public chain that can make the list. Initially intended for airdrop, but ended up offending all the early builders who were looking to take advantage of it, ultimately taking the route of Binance's IEO. This story should be well-known; such things used to be punished severely. SUI-IEO whitelist acquisition method - the airdrop is gone.
18. Floki: meme, the next hundredfold SHIBA? - meme coin Floki.
19. Hyperliquid: DEX platform token, don't be fooled by its recent rise, with a current FDV of 25 billion USD. Currently, UNI FDV is only 5.2 billion. This platform token can be summarized as pulling its own tokens on its own DEX; in short, it's a scam. If you can run away, do it quickly.
20. Pendle: This has been mentioned many times, a supernova in this round of financial DeFi projects. The next bull market’s hundredfold DeFi series - Pendle.
Bitcoin has risen by 130%, ranking 35th. Despite Bitcoin's high market cap, it still ranks 35th in terms of annual growth rate for 2024. You need to understand how many projects emerge in a year. Just pump fun alone may produce hundreds of projects in a day, and many meme projects can go hundreds of times shortly after launch. However, this is for the whole year; many projects can only hold on for a few days, and later may not perform well.
Projects like Virtual, ai16z, fartcoin, BGB have only emerged in the last two months, and by the end of next year, it is still uncertain whether they can continue to lead.
It can be seen that the rise of Bitcoin is indeed very strong, even though its market cap has reached 2 trillion. So we must not just look at market cap!
We also found that among these 20 projects, 10 of them are meme projects, so this round is a big meme cycle. Will 2025 still be a meme cycle? I believe so, because meme projects are a product of market sentiment; their violent rises and falls attract attention, and the best way to manipulate the market is through this method. In the big du field of cryptocurrency, meme projects are the best place.
We also found four DeFi projects, so DeFi projects still have enormous potential and space.
Next, we compare the growth rankings of 2023:
1. Bonk: Dragon 1 meme on SOL, is there still 300 times space? Meme Bonk data analysis
2. INJ: Layer 2 DEX, cross-chain derivatives trading platform - INJ analysis
3. CorgiAi: meme on Cronos
4. Kas: DAG public chain, a public chain project that has surged 100 times in the past year - Is KAS that powerful?
5. Render: Depin dragon 1, WEB3 decentralized cloud rendering leader RNDR potential analysis.
6. Sol: public chain
7. Conflux: Domestic public chain, CFX, a light of domestic public chains, infinite imagination?
8. Wemix: South Korean gaming platform, can this top domestic chain gaming platform Wemix repeat its 130-fold success in this round?
9. Fet: AI project, AI agent, Artificial Intelligence + Blockchain Infrastructure - Fetch.ai (FET)
10. Stacks: Bitcoin Layer 2, Bitcoin L2 leader - STACKS potential analysis
Looking at the 2023 rankings, we still find a diverse range of projects, at least not one-sided. Our Bitcoin remains at 162% growth, ranking 35th, very stable, while Ethereum is also close to 100% growth.
2023 should be a key period for the transition from bear market to bull market. At this time, we find that most public chains have shown decent growth, so public chains still have opportunities.
2025 trend judgment:
1. BTC ETF net inflow continues to increase: Although recent institutional ETFs have seen net outflows, the net inflow of BTC ETFs this year has reached 35 billion, surpassing gold. When we discussed ETFs in January, we mentioned that after the gold ETF was approved, it triggered a multi-year bull market in gold. So, Bitcoin will not be an exception, and this year may be the lowest year for ETF net inflows, with more to come. Will the Bitcoin spot ETF be approved or not? Follow-up market analysis.
2. SocialFi rises: There have been many discussions around SocialFi projects before, such as Farcaster, friend-tech, Uxlink, Deso, Cheelee, etc. However, none of these have reached a very explosive state yet. But this round, AI agents have risen, and Social is the strongest among them because AI can assist these projects in operation (automated operations for Twitter, Discord, Telegram, etc.). In the future, as long as it can support the operation of these social apps, the next hot trend is likely to be SocialFi.
3. AI continues to explode: AI projects had a breakthrough in 2023, and seem to perform quite average in 2024, but anyone can see that AI is the future direction. In 2023, many excellent AI projects emerged, such as Tao, FET, AGIX, etc., and there was a consolidation of AI projects (FET, AGIX, OCEAN merger), so the future of the AI track looks promising.
4. Stablecoins surge: Currently, stablecoins are continuously increasing, and many stablecoin projects are emerging. From USDA to USDZ, they should be running out soon. We have always mentioned that in bull markets, stablecoins are a battleground because they are easy to make money, and each round often features large Ponzi schemes. The last round's Luna ended in madness and tragedy; who will become the next Luna in this round? We have analyzed that before.
5. DeFi's summer again: As long as the bull market arrives, DeFi will not be absent. On-chain lending is indeed very convenient. Currently, AAVE stands out, and others will not lag behind. The infrastructure for DeFi will also not fall behind, such as oracle series and RWA series.
6. Various innovative applications: The variety of innovative applications will only increase. Previously, we introduced storage, domain ENS, the Internet of Things IOTA & HNT, education EDU, music sharing and streaming protocols Audius & Opulous, encyclopedia IQ, etc. More and better applications will emerge in the future.