Good morning, guys! Last night Bitcoin hit a new low again, and during the rebound, it has been fluctuating up and down, which is becoming increasingly uninteresting. The things to play with are just those, and enthusiasm is slowly fading. Today is the last day to play, let's continue next year!
Today's market analysis:
BTC:
Last night Bitcoin rebounded near the third support level, breaking through the second resistance level, but then fell back. The key level today is 93000; only if it holds above this level will there be a possibility of a rebound on the 1-hour level. Resistance/target levels above can be watched at 93572, 94225, and 94753. If it breaks through 93572, a rebound on the 4-hour level will begin. If it fails to break 93000 today, the rebound strength will be insufficient, and it may continue to decline, with support levels to watch at 91510, 90860, and 90190.
ETH:
Ethereum rebounded after falling to the second support level last night. Today, the focus is on the 3356 level; only if it holds above this level will there be a possibility of a rebound on the 1-hour level. Resistance levels to watch above are 3402, 3434, and 3472. If it breaks through 3356, it may initiate further rebounds. If it fails to break through 3356, the rebound strength will be insufficient, and it may continue to decline, with support levels to watch at 3306, 3271, and 3226.
Looking ahead
Trump will officially take office on January 20.
Since Trump successfully elected president in early November, the market has experienced a month of strong growth. With Trump being a consistent supporter of cryptocurrencies, and many of his nominated department heads being supporters of the crypto market, even the SEC chairman will be stepping down. These factors have led to an optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in the market.
Reuters reported that the proportion and number of future lawmakers supporting cryptocurrencies have significantly surpassed the previous term. Michael Rosen stated that Trump’s inauguration could bring unexpected surprises to the market, predicting that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office covering various areas such as immigration, energy, and cryptocurrencies. The market is full of expectations regarding Trump's cryptocurrency policy direction; if he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in a new golden age.
The FTX debt repayment plan is about to launch.
On December 17, FTX announced that its Chapter 11 restructuring plan would officially take effect on January 3, 2025. The first round of debt distribution will begin within 60 days of the effective date, with the first batch of distribution targets being approved creditors. FTX has reached agreements with crypto custodians such as BitGo and Kraken to provide asset distribution services.
According to data from HODL15 Capital, FTX's debt repayment plan will take effect on January 3, with the first round of distribution amounting to approximately $16 billion in cash. Previously, FTX and Alameda sold part of their tokens, and the repayment funds received by creditors will be distributed in cash rather than tokens, which may reduce the token sell pressure in the market and inject funds into the cryptocurrency market, generating a positive impact.
Bitcoin generally rises during the Lunar New Year period.
In early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, pointed out that Bitcoin usually sees an increase of about 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past 9 years, investors who bought Bitcoin in the 3 days leading up to the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after the Spring Festival typically saw good returns. The 2024 Spring Festival falls on February 10, and it is expected that the Bitcoin price will be around $43,000 around February 5 and close to $53,000 by February 15. After that, the price may continue to rise until it breaks $72,000 around March 15.
The Spring Festivals of 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occur in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 is at the end of January. Every year during the Lunar New Year, Bitcoin's price increase exceeds 10%, with the highest once reaching 43.55%. The 2025 Spring Festival is set for January 29, earlier than in previous years. This cyclical performance may continue in 2025.