Original title: (Holiday liquidity shrinks, is the market about to explore the bottom? | WTR 12.30) Original source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly review
From December 23 to December 30 this week, the maximum near $99963 and the minimum close to $92520 for ice sugar oranges, with a fluctuation range of about 8%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 95000, which will provide some support or pressure.
• Analysis: 1. 60000-68000 about 1.76 million; 2. 90000-100000 about 1.97 million; • In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87000~91000 is 80%; • Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100000~105000 in the short term is 70%.
Important news aspects
Economic news aspects
1. Vanda Research data shows that Nvidia has attracted $29.8 billion this year, replacing Tesla as the largest net inflow this year.
2. Economist Gregory Daco indicates that when the Federal Reserve re-examines its interest rate forecasts in the spring of next year, it may present a more dovish view.
3. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 21 in the U.S. is 219,000, with continued claims rising to 1.91 million, and repeat claims showing a gradual upward trend. The job market is cooling down, but it has not reached a level that worries the Federal Reserve.
4. OpenAI CEO Altman hopes to transform this non-profit organization managed AI development company into a for-profit company, and the biggest obstacle he faces is Microsoft, which has a significant influence in this process, as it has committed to invest over $13 billion in OpenAI.
5. If OpenAI fails to complete the transformation in the next two years, recent financing investors can recover their funds along with 9% interest, totaling about $7.2 billion.
Crypto ecosystem news aspects
1. Strive Asset Management has applied to U.S. regulators to approve a fund (ETF) that invests in convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other companies. This ETF aims to provide exposure to 'BTC bonds', which are described as 'convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy or other companies'
2. Santiment indicates that CEX dashboard data shows that after a general market decline during Christmas, whales transferred stablecoins to the platform. Although this does not guarantee that whales will immediately use these stablecoins, it can be seen as a signal for the end of 2024.
3. Santiment indicates that historically, BTC at 110000 is usually seen when the public no longer expects it.
4. Morehead indicates: BTC's price trend consistently follows a four-year halving cycle, where halving leads to reduced supply, and BTC usually experiences significant rises. Based on historical trends, BTC is expected to reach the peak of this cycle in August 2025, with a still promising outlook.
5. Citigroup analysts predict that cryptocurrency will experience growth in 2025, driven by factors including Trump's policies, increased ETF inflows, and stablecoin innovations. Trump-nominated SEC members and supportive positions on crypto are shaping a more favorable market for digital assets, with ETFs opening the door for more U.S. institutional investors.
6. Starting from December 31, 2024, banks and investment firms in Israel will begin offering these new Bitcoin funds to their clients.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral status Medium-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the likelihood of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
• Chips created and destroyed on-chain • Large on-chain transfer net head size • Total spot selling pressure • Panic from losses
(See below for chips created and destroyed on-chain)
During this time, the internal ecosystem has been relatively weak, with not many new chips, and new capital here seems to be relatively lacking.
(See below for large on-chain transfer net head size)
Large transfer transactions also gradually show a shift from inflow to outflow.
After a period of adjustment and grinding, large players finally have some willingness to buy.
(See below for total spot selling pressure)
Total spot selling pressure shows that the current on-chain selling pressure has decreased by half.
Although there is still a significant difference from previous lows, overall pressure has started to decrease, and no sustained pressure has emerged.
(See below for panic from losses)
Panic from losses has appeared twice at this high level, and it is expected that it may need to occur one or two more times to stabilize the market initially.
It may still take time to wear down or emotional pressure.
Medium-term exploration
• Changes in long-term and short-term participants' positions • ETH exchange circulation ratio • Incremental model • Giant whale comprehensive score model • Liquidity supply
(See below for changes in long-term and short-term participants' positions)
From this comprehensive data, long-term participants are slowly reducing their positions. There are signs of slow increases in short-term participants' positions, but this has currently slowed down. The conclusion that can be drawn now is that short-term participants still have the capacity to hold, but must consider their pace of increasing holdings and reducing positions.
(See below for ETH exchange circulation ratio)
The ETH exchange circulation ratio is still rising, but the growth rate has slowed. There may be a slow shift towards hedging or a trend of reducing risk exposure.
(See below for incremental model)
From the current situation, the market has returned to a previous stock-oriented state. As time goes on, without continued increases in increments, the stock will be the current environmental tone.
(See below for giant whale comprehensive score model)
The rating of giant whales has been slowly decreasing, currently still holding a rating above 'medium'. Compared to the previous 'high' rating, it has decreased.
(See below for liquidity supply)
Liquidity is slowly decreasing, and the market may currently be facing a state of liquidity contraction. This may result in limited fluctuations in the market and lean more towards a consolidation-type structure.
Short-term observation
• Derivative risk coefficient • Options intention transaction ratio • Derivative transaction volume • Implied volatility of options • Profit and loss transfer volume • New and active addresses • Ice sugar orange exchange net head size • E-Tai exchange net head size • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net head size • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, with moderate derivative risk.
(See below for derivative risk coefficient)
The risk coefficient is still in the neutral zone, having approached the green zone in the short term last week. Being in the neutral zone means that regardless of the market's direction, there is considerable room for movement.
(See below for options intention transaction ratio)
The ratio of put options is at a medium-high level, with trading volume at the median.
(See below for derivative transaction volume)
The derivatives market is waiting for the next wave of volatility.
(See below for implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of options has not changed significantly.
Sentiment status rating: Neutral
(See below for profit and loss transfer volume)
There was no panic selling last week, and this week we will continue to focus on whether panic selling behavior occurs (orange line).
(See below for new and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at the median.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation, while ETH has a small overall outflow accumulation.
(See below for ice sugar orange exchange net head size)
BTC exchange net head size continues to see large outflow accumulation.
(See below for E-Tai exchange net head size)
ETH has a small overall outflow.
(See below for high-weight selling pressure)
BTC has a small amount of high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, while stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
(See below for global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss.
(See below for USDT net head size)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 90000; there is a willingness to sell at 100000.
(See below for Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85000~90000;
There is a willingness to sell around the price range of 100000.
(See below for Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85000~95000; there is a willingness to sell around the price range of 100000.
(See below for Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85000~90000;
There is a willingness to sell around the price range of 100000.
Weekly summary:
News summary:
During the holiday period, liquidity decreased, and market changes were small and relatively light. In the past, strong recoveries occurred in the first quarters of 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. Now we are nearing the first quarter of 2025. Remain relatively optimistic about the future.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. New capital is relatively weak or comparatively low; 2. Giant whales and large players have slowly shifted from selling to initial buying willingness; 3. The selling pressure from spot has not continued to rise and has seen significant decreases compared to before; 4. The market may still need time to wear down or experience several panic squeezes emotionally.
• Market tone: Adjustment and repair.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
1. Long-term participants are slowly reducing their positions, while short-term participants are slowing their accumulation speed; 2. The ETH exchange circulation ratio is slowly trending towards hedging; (which may increase the difficulty of small coin narratives) 3. If the incremental speed continues to slow, the market may return to a stock rhythm; 4. The giant whale score has decreased, but is still rated above 'medium'; 5. Liquidity is contracting, which may limit the fluctuations in the market, leaning more towards consolidation rather than trends.
• Market tone: Stock, slowing. From the current situation, market liquidity has somewhat contracted, and it may return to stock and a slowing rhythm.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, with moderate risk. 2. New active addresses are near the median. 3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral. 4. Overall net head size of BTC in exchanges is in a state of large outflow, while ETH has a small overall outflow. 5. Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, with stablecoin purchasing power remaining the same as last week. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at 90000; a willingness to sell at 100000. 7. In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87000~91000 is 80%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 100000~105000 in the short term is 70%.
• Market tone: Observing the chip chart, there are many 'diamond hands' in the market.
The short-term market status and expectations are consistent with last week. Without panic selling, the current price will oscillate, but if panic selling occurs, focus on the short-term holder cost line around 86K. If positions are low, this period is a relatively good opportunity to enter.
Risk reminder: The above are all market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; please view cautiously and be wary of market black swan risks.
This article comes from submissions and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
