This month, the crypto market has been quite volatile. On December 5, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $100,000 mark, but then experienced a wave of fluctuations and a pullback between December 9 and 10, which was quite nerve-wracking. After that, the market began to slowly rebound, and everyone thought BTC was about to break $110,000, but a hawkish speech from Fed Chairman Powell delivered a heavy blow to the already heated market, causing a significant pullback in the altcoin market led by Ethereum. As of now, many altcoins have seen their prices nearly halved from this month's peak.
Panic among investors in the market is spreading, and everyone is anxious with many questions in the community: Is the bull market really over? What will happen next? Although market trends cannot be predicted, various events in January next month are worth paying attention to, especially why January might perform well.
1. Trump officially takes office on January 20.
After Trump's successful election as president in early November, the market experienced a month of strong gains. His consistently supportive stance towards cryptocurrencies, along with the appointment of department heads who are mostly pro-crypto, even the long-criticized SEC chairman is set to leave. These factors have filled the market with optimism about the future of cryptocurrencies.
Latest data shows that the new batch of incoming lawmakers significantly outnumbers their predecessors in supporting cryptocurrencies.
According to reports from Reuters, Michael Rosen, the Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, stated that Trump's inauguration may bring some unexpected surprises to the market. He expects Trump to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering multiple areas including immigration, energy, and cryptocurrencies.
The market is closely watching Trump's future moves regarding cryptocurrency policy. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may welcome a brand new golden age.
2. The FTX debt repayment plan is about to launch.
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan would officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of debt distribution will start within 60 days after it takes effect, with the first recipients being holders of approved convenience category claims. FTX has reached an agreement with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15 Capital, FTX's debt repayment plan will officially take effect on January 3, with approximately $16 billion in cash included in the first round of distribution.
Previously, most of the tokens held by FTX and Alameda, such as SOL and WLD, have been sold off. The repayment funds received by creditors are cash rather than tokens, which means that the selling pressure of tokens in the market will decrease, and it may indirectly increase the likelihood of this cash flowing back into the crypto market, thereby positively impacting market trends.
3. Bitcoin typically rises during the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, pointed out that Bitcoin usually sees an 11% increase around the Lunar New Year. Over the past nine years, investors who bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it ten days after the New Year typically achieved good returns.
The Spring Festival in 2024 is on February 10, with Bitcoin's price being about $43,000 on February 5, and then it rose to nearly $53,000 by February 15, continuing to climb until it surpassed $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festivals of 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occurred in early February, while the Spring Festival of 2023 was at the end of January. According to the chart, Bitcoin's increase during the Lunar New Year has exceeded 10% each year, with the highest increase reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 is scheduled for January 29, which is earlier than in previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as the pattern of 'October rises', and the performance during the Lunar New Year is also worth looking forward to.