2024 is a glorious year for Bitcoin. This weekend, the crypto community engaged in intense debates on Reddit about the cycle of this leading digital currency.
Bitcoin enthusiasts are pondering whether the classic four-year halving cycle will lose its predictive power.
From a Predictable Past to a Revolutionary Future
Despite the countless ups and downs Bitcoin has experienced, what would happen if we entered an era of Bitcoin hyperization, with countries beginning to hold Bitcoin as reserves? Does this mean that the current cycle won't crash as dramatically as the epic bull markets we've seen before? This was a hot topic on the Reddit forum r/bitcoin this weekend. In the post, Reddit users argue that the demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed, far outpacing the minting speed of new Bitcoin, driven by large players like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Microstrategy, and other corporate and governmental interests.
Thus, Reddit users believe that the traditional four-year halving cycle may no longer hold predictive allure, as surging demand has become the focus, overshadowing any effects of future supply reductions. The post sparked a plethora of responses to the proposed ideas and questions, with Reddit user 'Denfaina's' popular comment receiving 270 upvotes, stating: 'Cycle canceled, hyper-Bitcoinization is underway.' Essentially, hyper-Bitcoinization envisions a world dominated by Bitcoin, replacing fiat currencies as the preferred means of exchange, store of value, and accounting.
'To answer your question,' Denfaina added. 'It seems that the time frame for the vast majority of people (the time they consider before acting) is too short or too focused on past history to grasp the revolutionary wave that is coming. If you look back, those seemingly obvious revolutions were called scams or fads before they became mainstream (like the internet).'
Since Bitcoin first emerged and began discovering its value, it has undergone quite a rollercoaster. Bitcoin experienced bull market surges in 2012-2013, 2016-2017, 2020-2021, and 2023-2024, a pattern that is quite predictable due to halving events occurring approximately every four years. With each peak, the price of BTC skyrockets, but then plummets by over 75% to 80% in the subsequent bear market. However, this bull market seems to have taken a different turn, with significant institutional interest emerging from both the private and public sectors, as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, El Salvador and the Kingdom of Bhutan are now incorporating BTC as part of their reserves, and other countries may soon follow suit.
Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill suggesting that the U.S. should have its own strategic Bitcoin reserve. With Donald Trump winning the 2024 election and his comments on the matter, some Bitcoin supporters hope that the Trump administration, with support from the new Congress, will make this goal a reality. Bitcoin.com News explored speculative scenarios of Trump taking such actions, which could ignite the flames of global hyper-Bitcoinization. What if we don’t adhere to the traditional four-year cycle but instead enter a Bitcoin supercycle that pushes BTC prices to heights previously only imagined?
A dramatic crash of 75% to 80% may not occur, and people might confidently believe that BTC dropping below six figures will become a thing of the past. Many Reddit users in this post wholeheartedly agree, suggesting that this might just be the reality of the current cycle. 'This is often a wishful thought. People think they can sell at the peak and then buy back in at $50,000. I don't think that will happen this time,' one user commented. In response to that comment, another Reddit user echoed:
While some insist on Bitcoin's historical cyclical blueprint, the changing geopolitical landscape and increasing institutional activity suggest a bolder and more unpredictable future. Another Redditor commented in the post: 'If demand continues to dominate and the predictive ability of halving declines, we might see the 4-year cycle narrative fade over time.' 'The market might stabilize and trade more on fundamentals rather than halving hype. In this sense, the future halving may be less important as a price driver and more significant as a symbolic checkpoint in Bitcoin's deflationary design.'
As discussions about hyper-Bitcoinization intensify, the steadfast concept of cycles is on the verge of extinction. Whether or not a supercycle emerges, market observers still yearn to witness Bitcoin's next moves—and the surprises that may come in the future.
