The following text is organized from the series Twitter Space #Dialogue with Traders, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0.
Guest this episode: SaBiBro, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666
SaBiBro's trading journey: Transitioning from exchanges to on-chain strategies
SaBiBro, a pioneer in on-chain data-driven trading. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in its listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and in-depth due diligence (DD). This experience provided him with a deep industry understanding and laid a solid foundation for data analysis.
In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on developing NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually cooled down, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analysis tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.
SaBiBro's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: It does not focus on narrative valuations but rather on on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions.
At the same time, he also pointed out that trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behaviors of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team operating behaviors (conspiracy groups), and finally to the behaviors of key main addresses for individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continually improves the accuracy of trading decisions.
Currently, SaBiBro's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recently outstanding #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period. But for SaBiBro, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just profits.
The true value of MOODENG lies in validating the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of 'following the main force.' This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.
How to ensure stable victories in trading through data and discipline?
In the trading process, SaBiBro emphasizes the standardized strategy of 'doubling out the principal and halving the stop-loss,' which is the core of his risk management. This strategy avoids market emotional interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.
In trading, maintaining a win rate of over 33% is sufficient to achieve positive EV. For example:
• Profit-taking scenario: Sell all assets after doubling, achieving 100% returns. • Stop-loss scenario: Sell all assets after halving, losing 50%.
Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the long-term returns of traders will show positive growth. SaBiBro's strategy is based on probabilities, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding fluctuations in trading decisions due to short-term market volatility.
At the same time, SaBiBro's team developed a series of tools centered on data, providing users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and main force behavior:
Token insider analysis (CashCash Bot)
Analyzing the holding structure and address behavior of tokens through big data. Its core functions include:
Identifying main force behavior: Filtering addresses that have transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, classifying them as 'groups' or 'main force clusters.'
Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the concentration of holdings in tokens to identify whether the main force is accumulating.
Behavior model optimization: Combining address transfer behaviors (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form precise predictions of main force operations.
FOMO CALL signal
This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team's accumulated database of thousands of smart money addresses. When a group of historically high-performing addresses collectively buys a certain token within a short period in the market, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal helps users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential short-term upside.
These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when token insider analysis tools show that a certain token's main force accumulation level has reached a peak, and FOMO CALL signals capture collective buying behavior from smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with the strategies of doubling out and halving the stop-loss.
How to capture the main force's movements through data and take action?
In the cryptocurrency market, the main force accumulates and distributes profits, during which the on-chain holding behavior inevitably changes. The core of trading strategy is how to capture the main force's behavior patterns through data. For example, during accumulation, the main force exhibits specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main force may adjust strategies or even hide their behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of the main force. SaBiBro believes this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
SaBiBro's strategy starts with tracking 'smart money,' these addresses usually have over 40% win rates in the market and achieve significant returns. By filtering out these addresses with tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of high-performing address clusters.
The core methods of the strategy include:
Identifying collective actions: The team found that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern becomes the foundation of the strategy.
Position control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 holdings list, keeping a low profile to avoid affecting the main force's operating rhythm. Typically, the buying position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
Signal response: When a cluster in the monitoring list shows collective entry into a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory purchases to avoid prematurely exposing its own behavior.
Strategy case: The trading process of Moodeng
The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for SaBiBro's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-performing address cluster that entered MOODENG on a large scale and quickly accumulated. The team maintained small purchases and gradually followed based on the main force's previous operating methods.
During the trading process, the main force tests the market's buying and selling emotions through multiple rises and pullbacks while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. SaBiBro monitors the changes in the holding ratios of these main addresses in real-time and finds that the main force always accumulates again after each pullback. This phenomenon enhances the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.
In the end, MOODENG rose from an initial small market value to hundreds of millions, and the team not only achieved high returns but also validated the trading theory of 'following the main force' through this process.
How to seize opportunities in the cryptocurrency market's capital rotation?
The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market significantly impact the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of funds during different periods will vary:
Mainstream coin rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, leading to a lack of on-chain liquidity and low trading volume.
Emerging public chains and hotspot switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent shift from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.
Meme track and narrative shifts: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, capital can also rotate due to updates on launchpads or shifts in narratives. For instance, from Solana's high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market capital keeps shifting.
Using on-chain data tools like Dune, SaBiBro's team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flow in real-time to assist decision-making. For example, recent capital rotations indicate that emerging virtual economies on new chains (such as AI Agents and Virtuals) have become hotspots, signaling the team to adjust positions in a timely manner and follow the capital trend.
Why can calmness and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?
Bull markets provide numerous opportunities but also come with high risks. In such markets, maintaining calmness and discipline is particularly important:
Independent judgment: SaBiBro emphasizes that trading should focus on verifying strategies rather than catering to market emotions. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the narrative of an 'eternal bull market,' resulting in excessive optimism.
Timely profit-taking: A major trap in a bull market is the reluctance to sell. Even when the market rises, taking partial profits is key to maintaining long-term advantages. Even if you miss higher points, controlling risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
Support for stable cash flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business or quantitative funds can reduce reliance on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.
In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: fear of missing out on opportunities, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response to this, SaBiBro also shared his coping strategies:
Focusing on the trading framework: Trading beyond the framework, even if profitable, is not considered successful. The core of trading is to verify strategies and refine cognition, rather than temporary gains.
Establishing a calm communication environment: Avoid interference from emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.
Remember the cyclicality of the market: SaBiBro points out that a bull market is not 'eternal' but a cycle of opportunities and risks. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must remain cautious about risks, especially when the market only presents a single narrative without clear supporting logic.
How to quickly improve cognitive levels?
SaBiBro believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's circle, and communicating with high-cognition individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding individuals is an important way to improve oneself.
In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he continuously learns from others' successful experiences and methods, seeking his own breakthrough points. The influence of communication with others is subtle. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his path. He advocates 'upward socializing,' discovering more possibilities through interactions with more outstanding individuals.
He also mentioned that 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' is a book that has profoundly influenced his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth and teaches him to think about wealth management from the perspective of 'making money work for you.' He noted that this book broke the traditional educational notion of 'stable jobs' and inspired him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.
Besides books, his progress is also attributed to other sources of knowledge. For example:
1. On-chain analysis KOL
Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa: Focused on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
Mr. Mai @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human analysis, interpreting the logic of the main force's behavior from another angle.
2. Social media and community: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capturing market trends and discussing new tracks and business opportunities with team members.
In addition, SaBiBro believes that the integration of cognition across Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 to explore how to replicate successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking keeps him ahead in exploring new tracks.
Summary and recommendations
Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been verified as feasible in practice but require continuous dynamic adjustments. Moreover, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the shift in track narratives, sensitivity and adaptability must be maintained.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment is essential for gaining long-term advantages.
Establishing cognitive and cash flow pillars: By using stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market volatility with a more composed attitude. By 'continuously learning' and 'upgrading circles,' they can always stay at the forefront of knowledge.
