Bull Market Exit Signal Indicator Checklist (Simplified) 12-30

Reject noise and patiently wait; the bull market is still ongoing.

The trading cycle determines the win rate; every trader needs to respect the cycle.

Many people have doubts about the trading cycle. When looking at K-line charts, the 5-minute and daily charts seem similar, leading to questions about whether trading methods are interchangeable, such as whether weekly strategies can be used for intraday trading.

However, in the cryptocurrency market, 10 million USDT can influence the price movement of a coin within the day, but to change the daily trend, it may require 100 million.

This is because the larger the trading cycle, the higher the stability, and the amount of capital needed to change the trend is enormous, which creates market inertia.

Let me give you an example: you can easily see on a 1-minute chart that after a series of bullish candles, there can be a direct drop. In this situation, there is no divergence, nor is there a bearish signal, because technical indicators are inherently lagging, compounded by sudden market turns.

But what if it's the daily chart? If there are consecutive bullish candles, as long as it’s not an accelerating trend (getting faster and faster), after the first bearish candle, it usually will be followed by a bullish candle. This is the inertia of the market?

What is inertia? In my view, it is the habit of the market.

In the early stages of cryptocurrency, geniuses emerged one after another because they found the “trading holy grail.” They discovered certainty, achieved stable profits, and grew from tens of thousands to hundreds of millions, and cyclical inertia is their trading secret.

It's like a small car; braking is easy. But for a large truck, braking is difficult because the heavier the weight, the greater the inertia. When the braking signal appears, the market will still follow the trend; this is the certainty they have found.

Thus, the reason that the larger the cycle, the higher the certainty is due to market inertia. Higher levels of certainty are more stable. #BTC