According to ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily market observation stating that, as expected, we saw typical volatility selling after the quarterly expiration, with volatility dropping by 2-3 volatility points since the record options expiration last Friday.
Although BTC has been consolidating near the bottom of the 1-month range and the returns this month have been mediocre, BTC and ETH performed reasonably well in the fourth quarter: BTC rose by 48%, while ETH increased by 30%. However, it may still be too early to summarize this quarter. Just yesterday, Saylor released his BTC purchase tracker again, which may indicate another round of purchases is imminent, further supporting prices.
Although there may be another round of purchases, we do not have high expectations for the market during the New Year period, especially given the healthy funding conditions. The average return rate in January (+3.3%) is relatively similar to December (+4.8%), and we expect spot prices to remain in this range in the short term until a rebound begins in February.
Options flow also reflects similar sentiment, with front-end volatility gradually decreasing, and risk reversals primarily indicate strong demand for call options in March, partly due to the large purchases of March options made last Friday.
