Bitcoin dropped to a low of around $93,000 around 06:30 this morning, marking the lowest point in nearly a week, and the market liquidity shortage caused by the European and American holidays seems to have not yet shown significant recovery.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 76,503 traders were liquidated, totaling $160.03 million.
Has Bitcoin's movement over the past two days made you feel drowsy?
I made a comparison and can clearly see that Bitcoin's current trading volume has entered a very low level, comparable to the trading volume during the eight-month stagnant period at $65,000.
Therefore, the current sell-off has nothing to do with so-called market makers or big players; it is all a PVP of BTC holders under low liquidity. The real price movement will have to wait until liquidity recovers in stages.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin shows a rebound in the one-hour chart. The four-hour chart indicates a downtrend, the twelve-hour chart is also in a downtrend, and the daily chart is still forming a bottom. The cycle needs to be extended, and as for the final low point, let's first observe the effects of the recent movements against the clouds. The intraday resistance level is $96,500, and the support level is $91,000.
What will the future market trend look like? Although the market is unpredictable, what catalysts will be present in January? Why is January's performance worth looking forward to?
I. Trump will be inaugurated as president on January 20.
After Trump successfully campaigned for president in early November, the market experienced a month-long rally. Trump presented a crypto-friendly image, and many of his nominated department heads are pro-crypto individuals. The SEC chairman, who has often been criticized, is also set to leave, which has made the market generally optimistic about the future of the crypto market.
Recent data shows that the proportion and number of the new incoming lawmakers who support crypto is significantly ahead compared to the previous session.
According to a recent report by Reuters, Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, stated that Trump's inauguration could bring some surprises to the market, as he is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, addressing a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying attention to Trump's every move regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his promises made during the campaign, the crypto market may usher in its own golden era.
II. FTX is about to start repaying debts.
On December 17, FTX and its associated debtors announced that the Chapter 11 reorganization plan approved by the court will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distribution will start within 60 days after the effective date and is only available to approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached an agreement with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, the first round of repayment distribution, effective on January 3, includes $16 billion in cash.
Some tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold out.
The compensation received by creditors is cash instead of tokens, which indirectly reduces market selling pressure and increases the probability of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thus boosting market sentiment.
III. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, stated that Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the Lunar New Year. In the past nine years, traders who bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it ten days after have seen good returns.
February 10 is the Lunar New Year in 2024, and Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 by February 15, and continued to rise afterward, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Lunar New Year in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occurred in early February, while in 2023 it happened at the end of January. The chart above clearly shows that BTC's upward trend during the month of the Lunar New Year is over 10%, with a peak even reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Lunar New Year in 2025 falls on January 29, which is earlier than in previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'October rally', and the performance of the market during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
IV. Ethereum staking ETF.
After Trump takes office, the Ethereum staking feature will also arrive as promised. The launch of this feature will greatly enhance Ethereum's attractiveness, drawing in a large amount of buying interest. It is reported that staking applications may appear in January, and before the Christmas holiday, the market had already positioned itself with $131 million of buying funds. The expectations of institutions are the best proof of the market's recovery.
V. Ethereum Prague upgrade.
Reviewing Ethereum's upgrade history, each upgrade has seen its price enter a major upward wave within three months. The recent Prague upgrade is expected to reveal results in January (although there may be delays, it will not affect the final trend). Let's look forward to Ethereum leading the market once again!
Altcoins that should be bottom-fished during this pullback:
1) AI agent sector, such as secondary market PHA, ATA;
2) Tokens held by Grayscale and BlackRock: ZEN, ONDO, etc.;
3) Trump-themed coins: ETH, COW, AAVE;
4) Meme coins heavily invested by market makers: GOAT, MOODENG, PNUT.
For reference only, trade at your own risk. Personally, I would prioritize PHA, ZEN, COW.