Original author: HighFreedom (X: @highFree2028) From recent times until around January 5th next year, this time window may gradually enter a relatively good buying opportunity for Bitcoin: On the macro dollar liquidity front: due to the usual decline in short-term liquidity at the end of the year (liquidity squeeze), there has been a short-term surge in SOFR, squeezing risk assets. It is expected that liquidity will recover around January 4th (by then SOFR will be below EFFR again; this was also the case at the end of 2023, and SOFR will return to normal on January 4th, 2024). Specifically, the logic chain is: financial institutions reduce leverage and increase cash or cash equivalents to comply with year-end regulatory requirements -> market liquidity is temporarily withdrawn -> less money leads to a surge in ultra-short-term financing rates -> strategies in U.S. stocks that are extremely sensitive to short-term rates are squeezed and forced to close positions -> U.S. stocks are squeezed -> Bitcoin follows the squeeze. Large holder situation: On the BTC chain: long-term holders (LTH) have almost stopped selling after a large amount of selling following the main upward trend after the election (totaling 1 million BTC sold). The trend of large holders selling has stopped. Bitfinex large holders: have started to continuously buy BTC spot at around a 0.2% premium. Bitfinex leveraged long BTC positions: have started to increase positions since the evening of the 28th. Americans are back to work: Recently, there has been almost no issuance of USDT at the $1 billion level, confirming that MSTR has not bought coins. It is expected that Americans will return to work to continue buying coins after January 1st (MSTR is a bit of an exception; the optimistic scenario is a two-week blackout period from January 14th to February 5th during the earnings call where they cannot finance to buy coins; the pessimistic scenario is a four-week blackout period starting from January 1st until February 5th during the earnings call where they cannot finance to buy coins). The pullback has already bottomed: multiple times it has been grinding near 92-93, having pulled back about 20% from the high of 108,000 to 92,000. Except for the 30% pullback caused by the black swan on August 5th, the basic pullback has been a maximum of around 20%. The bubble squeeze seems clean: even though last Friday U.S. stocks fell mainly due to a short-term liquidity squeeze, during the day the Nasdaq dropped a maximum of 2%, I observed that Bitcoin also dropped just a little over 2% around 93, giving a clear sense of a clean bubble squeeze. On the order book: in the past day or two, there have started to be relatively dense and large orders on Binance spot. Altcoins: seem to be unable to drop much. Risk: Whether the BOJ will raise interest rates by 25 bps on January 23rd is a sword hanging over our heads. The officials of the Japanese Financial Services Agency are still generally inclined to skip the rate hike, but their statements are somewhat ambiguous, so we can only continue to observe. The current market is pricing in a rate hike probability of about 40%; in addition, the JPY/USD exchange rate is once again approaching 160 (currently when writing this article it is 157.88, nearing 158). If it reaches 160, it may once again challenge the BOJ's bottom line to some extent, potentially increasing the probability of a rate hike. Question: Can anyone advise me, the recent high negative premium of BTC on Coinbase, is this a good signal or a bad signal?

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