Author: Professor Suo says
Introduction
In the financial market, just like at the dining table, some prefer fish heads, some love fish bellies, and others like fish tails. Similarly, in the crypto market, these preferences are also vividly expressed. So, what should we eat?
This article uses the different stages of @pumpdotfun to symbolize 'fish head, fish belly, fish tail', exploring various investment stages in the financial market.
Fish Head
Definition: In the financial market, the fish head can be seen as:
Left-side trading in the secondary market, that is, buying before prices rise.
Seed round investment in the primary market.
In @pumpdotfun, it is called 'Seneboard'.
The fish head is here
Characteristics:
High risk, high return: Invest in the 0-1 growth process, with extremely high multiples in between.
Suitable crowd: Only suitable for a very small number of people with a strong risk preference. These people often conduct in-depth research but still face high risks.
Profit potential: For example, on the @pumpdotfun platform, if you invest within 10,000 units, you could achieve a tenfold return once successfully launched; if it reaches 10 million units, it could appreciate a thousandfold.
Notes:
Due to limited capital capacity, the fish head stage is mainly the battlefield for 'On-chain Kings' and 'P-little Generals'; big players generally do not participate unless it is their own project or they are involved in a conspiracy group.
Belly
Definition:
The fish belly is the part most people love because it has the most meat.
In @pumpdotfun, fish belly refers to the stage of deciding whether to invest after a period of research and analysis following the launch.
Characteristics:
Low risk, relatively high return: After market validation, risk decreases, and opportunity certainty increases.
Ordinary investors: Without insider information, they can only choose investments through analyzing the track.
Examples: For instance, investors who chased into $ACT, $PNUT, and $neiro after they were listed on @binance all tasted success.
Profit strategy:
When investing, set aside absolute values and only discuss multiples. Fish head investors may earn 50,000 from 500 units, while fish belly investors only need a 50% increase to double.
Tail
Definition:
Fish tail market refers to investors trying to profit by bottom fishing at the end of the market with a sense of luck.
Characteristics:
High risk, low return: Due to market weakness, bottom fishing is extremely risky, and returns often do not match the risk.
Investor psychology: There are always those who are confident they can sell at the top of the market, but they often end up getting trapped.
Project party harvesting: The project party or the big players often conduct the final capital harvesting at this stage.
Risk analysis:
The return rate for investing in the fish tail is extremely low; unless investors believe there is still significant upside in the market, it is not worth participating.
Conclusion: Eat fish based on the odds
Fish Head: High risk, high return, suitable for a few risk-takers.
Fish Belly: Lower risk, relatively stable returns, suitable for most investors.
Fish Tail: High risk, low return, not recommended for participation unless there is a special market judgment.
Personal suggestion: I tend to prefer choosing 'fish belly' because it has a higher tolerance for error. For ordinary investors without insider information, fish belly offers a relatively balanced risk-return ratio.
