Article sourced from: Trading Moments
1. Market Observation
Keywords: ETH, BTC, MiCA
As the year-end approaches, the market is filled with expectations and divergences regarding Bitcoin's performance in the coming years. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor disclosed that the company holds 444,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $41.4 billion, and hinted at further purchase plans. El Salvador continues to accumulate, currently holding over 6,000 Bitcoins, valued at $569 million. However, Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $100,000 support level, and the sideways movement increases market uncertainty.
Crypto strategists predict that the Bitcoin bull market may end in a high-profile manner. Blockware Solutions expects Bitcoin to rise to between $150,000 and $400,000 by 2025, driven by Federal Reserve policy, corporate adoption, and Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. NBA legend Scottie Pippen is bolder, directly pointing to $1 million as the next critical target for Bitcoin. However, the market is not entirely optimistic. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin may adjust in the short term, potentially dropping to $76,000. Additionally, Bill Gates continues to express skepticism about Bitcoin, criticizing its lack of productivity and viewing it as a risky asset class. Whether the U.S. will include Bitcoin in its financial reserves remains contentious, as the balance between dollar hegemony and cryptocurrency opportunities is yet to be observed.
In the Ethereum market, futures data shows that selling pressure has eased, and signs of recovery are emerging. Meanwhile, after transferring 200,000 ETH to Kraken, some dormant old-style crypto wallets have become active again, indicating hope for the crypto market amid volatility. The crypto world remains full of unknowns, but it also signals that the next transformative moment is approaching.
2. Key Data (as of December 30, 09:05 HKT)
S&P 500: 5,970.84 points (year-to-date +25.18%)
Nasdaq: 19,722.03 points (year-to-date +31.38%)
10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.626% (year-to-date +74.51 basis points)
U.S. Dollar Index: 108.00 (year-to-date +6.86%)
Bitcoin: $934,00.96 (year-to-date +120.99%), daily spot trading volume is $30.27 billion.
Ethereum: $3,380.99 (year-to-date +48.19%), daily spot trading volume is $13.93 billion.
3. ETF Flow (December 27 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: -$297.75 million
Ethereum ETF: +$47.77 million
4. Important Dates (Hong Kong time)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 PM)
Actual: Pending / Previous Value: 48.4% / Expected: 48.3%
5. Hot News
This week's preview | The claims processing for FTX will begin on January 3, 2025; (MiCA) will take effect.
This week's macro outlook: The New Year's holiday market tends to remain calm, but economic data may contradict the Federal Reserve.
Report: 51 countries/regions prohibit crypto assets, with some economies regulating through legal adjustments or re-legislation.
Hamster Kombat will build an L2 blockchain on the TON chain.
FLock announces tokenomics and airdrop plan: 66.7% allocated to the community and ecosystem.
The chairman of Germany's Free Democratic Party calls for including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in central bank reserves.
Data: Tokens such as SUI, OP, and ZETA will see significant unlocks next week, with SUI unlock valued at approximately $270 million.
Tether CEO retweeted several tweets stating that USDT will not be deemed illegal in Europe on December 30.
Modular blockchain Sophon completes mining migration and opens mainnet mining.
El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves reached 6,000 coins, approximately valued at $569 million.
VIRTUAL market cap surpasses $3.428 billion, climbing to 47th in the cryptocurrency market cap rankings.
ai16z initiates a proposal to upgrade the tokenomics model, suggesting the launch of a Launchpad.
Michael Saylor: 60 companies hold over 590,000 BTC.
Galaxy Research annual forecast: BTC will break $150,000 in the first half of the year, and ETH will exceed $5,500.
The IRS requires DeFi brokers to report digital asset sale gains and collect user transaction information starting in 2027.
Supported by OSL - Hong Kong's largest over-the-counter trading platform, continuously providing regulated digital asset services to the market since 2018.
