1. The halving cycle of Bitcoin's underlying logic, with 2025 corresponding to 2013, 2017, and 2021.
2. Aside from the main upward waves brought by the major cycles, the fluctuations should all follow the Nasdaq's casual movements, with a couple of significant shifts, and the rest is just wasted time.
3. Whether altcoins will have a big narrative mainly depends on the strength of Trump's interest rate cuts. If we follow Powell's current statements, the big narrative for altcoins might have to wait until 2026, as the hot money in 2025 won't be enough to support a large narrative, only small narratives can be accepted continuously, just like this year.
What is a big narrative? At least the things you were playing with at the beginning of the year are still what you are playing with now, and it's expected that you can still play with them next year.
4. Whether you like it or not, altcoins will continuously unlock and increase their circulation in the future. Of course, unlocking and driving prices up has also become a trend this year, but just looking at prices when buying coins is no longer sufficient; you must pay attention to the changing trends in circulation. Drive up - unlock - sell - drive up, is still the main cycle.
5. Cryptocurrency hotspots and mainstream hotspots will increasingly converge. Current global hotspots, financial hotspots, technological innovations, etc., will all affect market sentiment here and influence coin trading. This year, there have already been cases where sudden hotspot explosions impacted the original trading rhythm of certain coins, accelerating everything.
6. The decoupling of BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market should accelerate.
7. Next year, Americans and South Koreans should still be the main players. If the Bank of Japan really starts printing a lot of money, there should be some unexpected funds flowing in.
8. When hot money is abundant, be speculative; when hot money is scarce, be pragmatic. At the beginning of next year, focus on projects with good fundamentals and stable high profits. As the year approaches the end, pay attention to projects with exaggerated narratives, preferably in biotech, quantum, and astrophysics.
9. After the SEC changes leadership, cryptocurrency reform and opening up should be noted, especially the intensity of activities in crypto projects after January 20, as many announcements that would originally be classified as securities are likely to be brewing.
10. Whether Bitcoin is included in the government reserves in Trump's first hundred days is very important. If not, it seems that the first half of 2025 can be a break; if so, then there will be no rest for a single day in 2025—let's make more money.
Two themes can be observed: next year's core will still be the momentum after the Trump administration comes to power. Including in government reserves is indeed the beginning of a grand narrative—let's look forward to it.
Wishing everyone successful investments in 2025, no longer experiencing the tragic situation of 2024, and together embracing new wealth opportunities!
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