The chart below provides a comprehensive view of how Bitcoin investor groups (from small individuals to large institutions) are participating in the market, with data analyzed based on the accumulation and distribution behavior of BTC over 60 days.

1. The significance of each investor group

• >10k BTC (Super whales): These are large financial institutions, investment funds, or individuals with strong financial potential.

• 1k-10k BTC (Large whales): Organizations or individuals with significant purchasing power but not yet globally scaled.

• 100-1k BTC (Medium whales): Investors or small funds, often more sensitive to price fluctuations.

• 10-100 BTC and below (Retail Group): Mostly individual investors or newcomers.

2. Correlation between group behavior and BTC price

• During periods of sharp Bitcoin price decline or accumulation zones, large groups (>10k BTC) often tend to increase their buying. This reflects their belief in the long-term value of BTC.

• Meanwhile, smaller retail groups tend to sell off or reduce their accumulated amounts when the market enters a state of correction or panic.

Real-world examples:

• In 2018-2019, when BTC prices fell sharply, the whale group (gold and orange) continuously accumulated BTC, leading to a strong price increase from late 2020 to 2021.

• In 2021, when prices reached their peak, most large groups began distributing (selling), while retail investors bought in with a 'FOMO' (fear of missing out) mentality.

3. Recent important data (2024)

• The >10k BTC and 1k-10k BTC groups are currently accumulating strongly, despite recent price fluctuations.

• Smaller groups (0-10 BTC) tend to distribute, possibly due to concerns that the market has risen too high or a lack of confidence in the long-term trend.

4. Personal assessment of the future of BTC

This chart shows the shift of capital from retail investors to large groups in recent times. This is a strong signal indicating that the market is being 'quietly accumulated' by whales and large institutions. History has shown that such accumulation phases often lead to price explosions in subsequent cycles.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin is likely to witness a strong growth phase in the medium and long term, especially as large groups increase their holdings and supply in the market becomes scarce. However, the recovery of BTC prices will depend heavily on the macroeconomic context and market sentiment in the coming year.

What is your assessment of this situation?