In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, and the on-chain holding behaviors inevitably change during this process. These behaviors can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals, increasing trading win rates.
SaBiGe (Twitter @SaBiBro666) shared all the details of using this strategy to buy into $MOODENG.
This is the 24th recap of #100 Trader Conversations, continuously updated, welcome to follow.
SaBiGe's trading journey: From exchange to on-chain strategy transformation
SaBiGe, a pioneer in data-driven trading in the on-chain field. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in its listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence (DD). This experience provided him with deep industry insight while laying a solid foundation for data analysis.
In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually declined, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.
SaBiGe's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuations but rather on on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and loss-cutting rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and loss-cutting strategies, trading can free itself from the interference of subjective emotions.
At the same time, he also points out that trading logic needs continuous optimization. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of on-chain smart money, then expanded the focus to team trading behaviors (conspiracy groups), and finally to the key main player address behaviors of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.
Currently, SaBiGe's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the foundation of his core investment portfolio. Furthermore, the recent standout #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period. However, for SaBiGe, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just profit.
The true value of MOODENG lies in validating the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behaviors of the main addresses behind MOODENG, he has confirmed the trading theory of 'following the main players'. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.
How to ensure success in trading with data and discipline?
During the trading process, SaBiGe emphasizes the standardized strategy of 'doubling out capital and cutting losses in half', which is the core of his risk management. This strategy avoids market emotional interference through clear rules and validates the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.
In trading, maintaining a win rate of over 33% is sufficient to achieve positive EV. For example:
Profit-taking scenario: Selling all after the asset doubles, achieving a 100% return.
Loss-cutting scenario: Selling all after the asset is halved, incurring a 50% loss.
Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. The strategy of 'SaBiGe' is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset to avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
At the same time, SaBiGe's team has developed a series of tools, centered on data, to provide users with deep insights into market hotspots and main player behavior:
Token insider analysis (CashCash Bot)
By analyzing on-chain data, the token holding structure and address behavior are examined. Its core functions include:
Main player behavior recognition: Identifying addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics and classifying them as 'gangs' or 'main player clusters'.
Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the concentration of token holdings to identify whether the main players are accumulating.
Behavior model optimization: Combining the transfer behaviors of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form precise predictions of main player operations.
FOMO CALL signal
This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buys a certain token within a short period, the FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal helps users quickly capture market hotspots and judge whether the token has potential short-term upside.
These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that a certain token's main player's accumulation level has reached a peak, and the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of multiple smart money addresses, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can use the data provided by the tools, combine it with the strategies of doubling out capital and cutting losses in half, to establish positions and track trends.
How to capture the movements of main players through data and take action?
In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, which inevitably changes the on-chain holding behavior during this process. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main players through data. For example, during the accumulation phase, main players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.
However, as more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their actions. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify possible hidden behaviors of the main players. SaBiGe believes this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
SaBiGe's strategy starts with tracking 'smart money', which usually achieves over 40% win rates in the market and realizes significant profits. By filtering out these addresses through tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list, continuously monitoring a group of high-performing address clusters.
The core methods of the strategy include:
Identifying collective actions: Team monitoring has discovered that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern serves as the foundation of the strategy.
Position control: When following main players, avoid entering the top 100 holding list and remain low-profile to avoid disrupting the main players' trading rhythm. Typically, the buying position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
Signal response: When clusters on the monitoring list show collective entry into a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory purchases to avoid prematurely exposing its own actions.
Strategy case: The trading process of Moodeng
The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for SaBiGe's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term high-performing address cluster that entered MOODENG on a large scale and quickly accumulated positions. Based on the main players' previous trading methods, the team maintained small purchases and gradually followed up.
During trading, the main players test the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rises and pullbacks while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. SaBiGe continuously monitors the changes in the holding ratios of these main player addresses in real-time, discovering that the main players always accumulate again after each pullback. This phenomenon strengthens the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.
Ultimately, MOODENG rose from an initial small market cap to hundreds of millions, and the team not only achieved substantial returns but also validated the trading theory of 'following the main players' through this process.
How to seize capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market?
The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market significantly impact the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital attention varies in different periods:
Rotation of mainstream coins: Capital may concentrate on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, resulting in a lack of on-chain liquidity and lower trading volumes.
Emerging public chains and hotspot switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transfer from ETH to Base, then to BSC, and finally to Solana. Solana, due to its high TPS and low gas fees, has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects.
Meme track and narrative shift: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, capital will rotate due to updates in launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, from Solana's high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market capital is constantly shifting.
By using on-chain data tools like Dune, SaBiGe's team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flows in real time to assist decision-making. For example, recent capital rotations indicate that the virtual economy on emerging chains (such as AI Agent and Virtuals) has become a hotspot, prompting the team to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.
Why can calmness and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?
The bull market provides numerous opportunities but also comes with high risks. In such a market, maintaining calmness and discipline is particularly important:
Independent judgment: SaBiGe emphasizes that trading should focus on verifying strategies rather than catering to market emotions. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily confuse traders with the narrative of a 'perpetual bull market', leading to excessive optimism.
Timely profit-taking: One major trap in a bull market is 'reluctance to sell'. Even if the market is rising, partially exiting profits is key to maintaining long-term advantages. Even if it means missing higher points, controlling risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
Support from stable cash flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds can reduce reliance on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.
In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: fear of missing opportunities, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, SaBiGe also shares his coping strategies:
Focusing on the trading framework: Trading outside of the framework, even if profitable, is not considered successful. The core of trading is verifying strategies and refining cognition, rather than temporary gains.
Establishing a calm communication environment: Avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, heated emotions can easily trigger irrational decisions.
Keep in mind the cyclicality of the market: SaBiGe points out that bull markets are not 'eternal', but rather cycles of opportunity and risk. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must be cautious of risks, especially when there is only a single narrative in the market without clear supporting logic.
How to quickly improve cognitive levels?
SaBiGe believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's social circles; communicating with highly cognitive individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding individuals is an important way to improve oneself.
During the trading and entrepreneurial process, he continuously learns from the successful experiences and methods of others to find his own breakthrough points. The influence of communication with others is subtle. The actions and results of successful individuals around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his path. He advocates 'upward socializing', discovering more possibilities through interaction with more excellent people.
He also mentioned that (Rich Dad Poor Dad) is a book that has profoundly influenced his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of 'making money work for you'. He noted that this book breaks the traditional educational concept of 'stable jobs', inspiring him to explore entrepreneurship and investment possibilities.
In addition to books, his progress has also benefited from other knowledge sources. For example:
1. On-chain analysis KOL
Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa: Focused on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
Mai Zong @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explaining the logic of main player behavior from another perspective.
2. Social media and communities: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.
Moreover, SaBiGe believes that the integration of cognitive understanding between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team frequently study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking keeps him at the forefront in discovering new tracks.
Summary and suggestions
Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice, but require continuous dynamic tuning. Moreover, whether it's the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of narrative themes, one must remain sensitive and adaptable.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment is essential for achieving long-term advantages.
Establishing cognitive and cash flow pillars: With stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. By 'continuously learning' and 'upgrading social circles', one can always stay at the forefront of knowledge.
