CoinVoice has recently learned that trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has released his Q1 2025 outlook and expectations on X:
"It feels like a long time since Trump won the election 2 months ago, and now we are about to enter 2025, with prices significantly higher than just a while ago. With the U.S. leading the way in establishing crypto-friendly policies and regulations, the industry is filled with hope for a new crypto-friendly world.
Considering the local peak we experienced in December, I believe the bull market will continue in a similar fashion, where some assets perform exceptionally while others lag behind. For the next quarter, I believe the biggest beneficiary will be ETH. There are three reasons for this:
10 IQ Price Fractal: BTC has risen 40% from its previous peak, while ETH is 30% lower than its previous peak. While this may not mean much, both assets have ETF products, making it easy for the public to believe that ETH is cheaper than BTC (thus having more upside potential); Trump's crypto-friendly government: This has always been most beneficial for utility/smart contract-related assets. We have seen some DeFi assets (AAVE/UNI) perform exceptionally well in anticipation of this, but the biggest beneficiary asset is undoubtedly ETH. Trump's WLF has not done anything on Solana but has been continuously acquiring Ethereum-based assets, and I believe this will only continue; Base ecosystem development: Among all L2s on Ethereum, Base is the most prominent chain this year. With Coinbase's native distribution channels and Virtuals-led organic growth of AI agents, Base's value proposition is very similar to Solana, and it can undoubtedly be classified as a competitor. This creates natural demand for ETH as the underlying asset (since Base itself does not have its own token) and provides positive liquidity as ecosystem activity increases.
I expect ETH to break $4000 as early as January next year and possibly reach an all-time high sometime in the first quarter.
Additionally, I believe the three verticals that will continue to perform well are:
AI agents; Utility fee-generating tokens; Potential ETF cryptocurrencies.
In terms of cycle peaks, I suspect that most of 2025 will resemble 2023 or 2024, with a certain funding or re-rating followed by a massive PvP cut. Ultimately, one of these rebounds will become the global peak, but I believe we are not close to that high yet.
